Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Opinion poll findings from six states that should worry the Opposition

The stage is set for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 with six months to go for polls that are slated to begin in March next year. The battle lines have been drawn with the Bharatiya Janata Party flexing its muscle even as it continues to woo new partners while trying to win back estranged allies.

On the other side of the fence is the Opposition which has readied its own army as 26 parties comprising national and regional forces attempt to shed their differences and align to defeat a common enemy in the form of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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While much of how the battle shapes up at the time people cast their votes remains unclear — Opposition parties are yet to reveal their leader or a seat-sharing plan — there is a general understanding between them on how they want to proceed. At the heart of this consensus is an acknowledgment that the BJP can be defeated if they devise a state-wise plan that focusses on the selection of the right candidate.

However, opinion polls conducted in some of these key states reveal that the Opposition’s plans may prove insufficient. The survey was conducted by Times Now-ETG between April 22 and June 15, a week before the united Opposition held its first joint meeting in Patna presided over by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. As many as 1.35 lakh people participated in the survey.

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The findings of the survey suggest that the BJP could register an emphatic win in the elections set to be held in March-April next year. The states where the survey was conducted included Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Notably, three of these states will head into polls less than three months from now.

Maharashtra, where the past five years have seen several political ups and downs, has 48 Lok Sabha seats, the highest after Uttar Pradesh. As per the survey, the BJP-led NDA could win 22-28 seats while the Maha Vikas Aghadi of the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP could pocket 18-22 seats.

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Similarly, in Rajasthan, the NDA could register an emphatic win, bagging 20-22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the survey findings reveal. The Congress, on the other hand, could end up with 3-5 seats, and Others, between 1 and 2.

Bihar, whose Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is believed to have played a key role in bringing together all Opposition leaders on one table for an alliance discussion, could see the NDA bag 22-24 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The ruling alliance of the JD(U) and the RJD may finish with 16-18 seats. The happenings in Bihar assume significance as the Lalu-Nitish alliance believes it has a clear upper hand over the NDA in the state.

Madhya Pradesh, where Assembly elections are due later this year, could see PM Modi’s popularity help the BJP pocket 22-24 seats in the elections. The Congress, on the other hand, may have to settle at 5-7 seats, as per the survey. A crucial state of the Hindi heartland, MP sends 29 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

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Chhattisgarh, another state where polls are due this year, could see the NDA win 6-8 seats of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state while the Congress may end up 3-5 seats. Jharkhand reveals a similar picture where the NDA could bag 10-12 of the 14 seats while the Opposition could see itself limited to 2-4 seats, as per the survey.

The BJP may also see a silver lining in Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal, possibly winning 18-20 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, marginally behind the ruling Trinamool Congress which could bag 20-22 seats in the Lok Sabha elections next year.

Much of the Opposition’s plans rest on the fact that the BJP has already peaked in certain states in 2019, and a repeat of the same performance was highly unlikely. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP bagged 28 of the 29 seats in MP, 24 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, 41 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra (with undivided Shiv Sena), 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar (with Nitish Kumar), 18 seats in West Bengal, 9 seats in Chhattisgarh and 11 seats in Jharkhand.