The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a heavy rainfall warning for 13 states due to a cyclonic circulation forming over the Bay of Bengal. The warning specifically targets regions across Northeast India, where a significant change in weather conditions is expected.

The cyclonic circulation is currently located over northeast Assam in the lower tropospheric levels, and its influence is expected to trigger a range of weather events, including thunderstorms, lightning, and heavy rainfall in several areas.

In Northeast India, the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura will be affected over the next several days. In Arunachal Pradesh, scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall and snowfall are likely between February 17 and February 23, with heavy rainfall expected on February 19. 

Meanwhile, isolated to scattered light rainfall is predicted for Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura during the same period. Thunderstorm and lightning activity are expected to intensify over February 18-20, accompanied by gusty winds (30-40 km/h) in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on February 19.

Western disturbance brings rainfall, snowfall to northern India

In addition to the cyclonic circulation, a Western Disturbance has also triggered weather changes in the northern and western regions of India. Light rainfall and snowfall activity are forecasted over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad on February 17-18, with thunderstorms and lightning likely on February 19-20. 

As the Western Disturbance moves eastwards, regions such as Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand are expected to experience light rainfall and thunderstorms on February 19-20.

The impact of these weather systems will extend to western and central India as well. In West Rajasthan, isolated light rainfall is expected on February 19, and in Punjab and Haryana, light rainfall will occur from February 19-20. East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh will experience similar weather conditions, with light rainfall expected on February 19-20. Additionally, Chhattisgarh will witness light rainfall from February 21-22.

In the Himalayan regions, scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall and snowfall are expected in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand on February 19-20, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning. Isolated light rainfall and snowfall will continue from February 21-23.