Gujarat elections 2022: The countdown has begun to the Gujarat elections, possibly the most closely watched electoral battle this year. And it promises to be a mouth-watering contest, despite opinion polls so far giving the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party an upper hand in Gujarat. A confident BJP, Congress down but not out, and AAP threatening to be the dark horse have made the battle for Gujarat three-cornered in what has traditionally been a politically bipolar state. 

The upcoming Gujarat Elections 2022, however, isn’t the first time that the state will stand witness to a similar fight. The last time the state saw a three-way electoral contest was around 30 years ago. In the elections held in 1990, BJP won 67 seats, Congress won 33 while Janata Dal bagged a lion’s share of 70.

In the previous election in 1985, the incumbent Congress registered a landslide victory with an increase in the vote share and a record number of seats. Congress won 149 seats out of 182 seats, Janata Party bagged 14 seats, showcasing the dominance of the grand old party at that time. 

However, the state faced riots in 1985 in the cities of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar due to the reservation bill. The election remains the most significant for Congress as it won a thumping majority in the assembly. However, the BJP’s rise following that election led to a steady decline in support for Congress as well as its vote bank.   

A different pitch 

What makes the three-cornered election significant this time on the Prime Minister’s home turf is that the outcome will decide the political tone and tenor of Narendra Modi’s 2024 Lok Sabha election pitch. His popularity at the time of seeking a third consecutive term as PM, experts believe, will hinge on whether Modi manages to retain his home state.

High stakes battle

The BJP, known to treat every election with tactical and strategic precision, is treating this one no differently. But the stakes are particularly high PM Modi and his close associate Union Home minister Amit Shah, who call Gujarat their home.

Ever since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, the BJP has repeatedly banked upon his personal charisma to claim victories in state after state. In Gujarat too, the BJP’s winning juggernaut has continued — the saffron party swept the civic body polls — even as many do not even recollect the names of successive chief ministers after Modi shifted to Delhi. Poll experts predict that the Modi factor is ruling the roost in Gujarat and could sway the assembly elections also.  


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Amit Shah looks confident of the BJP forming government in Gujarat assembly elections and claims that BJP will break all records by winning the maximum number of seats. “The leadership of PM Modi and CM Bhupendra Patel is giving pace to development work. Gujarat’s law and order situation has improved, and the state’s economy has grown. PM Modi’s development model for Dalits, tribals and OBC community of Gujarat is being followed by CM Patel,” Shah said in an interview recently.

The Congress saga continues

The challenges for the Congress are multiple. It is beset with a sagging image. Factionalism, a string of high-profile exits and successive electoral losses have rendered the grand old party toothless. Ahmed Patel, its master strategist, is no more. It was Patel who is credited with the Congress’ performance in the last elections, coming almost close to beating the BJP.

Hardik Patel, a huge factor that had worked against the BJP, has since switched to the saffron party. Rahul Gandhi, the top leader of the Congress has so far shied away from the Gujarat election campaign. His ongoing Bharat Jodo Yatra, spanning from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, does not include Gujarat. He may, however, land up in Gujarat to campaign for a day later this month. 

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Newly elected Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel are among the other prominent names on the list of star campaigners for Gujarat. Can they help the Congress consolidate its vote bank especially in the rural belt which has been a stronghold for the party? In the six elections held between 1995 and 2017, the Congress’ vote share has hovered around thirties, breaching the 40 per cent-mark only one during the 2017 polls.

AAP has nothing to lose 

Set to contest all seats, AAP began its electoral campaigning much ahead of the BJP and Congress. By the time the election dates were announced, AAP had established its presence and already emerged as a force to reckon with. AAP may not manage to sweep the elections like it did in Punjab and earlier in Delhi, but a good performance will bolster Arvind Kejriwal’s image by leaps and bounds as he continues to expand AAP on a national level. Will AAP manage to displace the Congress as the main opposition? Could it damage not just the Congress but also upset the BJP apple cart? Only time will tell. Needless to say, a good performance in the Gujarat election can act as a stepping stone towards a much-awaited Congress revival and the AAP’s expansion from a former city-based entity to a national outfit.

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Gujarat will poll in two phases: December 1 and December 5 to elect 182 members for its legislative assembly. Results will be announced on December 8.