Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025 Live Updates: The political atmosphere in Bihar is charged with anticipation as the state heads into the decisive end of the 2025 assembly elections on Tuesday (November 11). All the parties will soon be bracing for the first major indicators of public sentiment via the exit polls. The exit poll analysis, however, cannot be released until voting concludes. As per ECI guidelines, these projections are embargoed till final voting concludes in order to prevent any last-minute influence on undecided voters.
Bihar Assembly Election 2025: Key Constituencies to Watch
The second phase of polling in Bihar is currently underway and it covers 122 constituencies across 20 districts. This phase sees key battleground seats in Gaya, Nawada, Jamui, Bhagalpur and Purnia voting. Polling began at 7 am and will continue until 5 pm.
Bihar Assembly Election Results Date and Live Coverage Details
Bihar exit poll results are expected after 6.30 pm today. Research agencies are preparing to release their assessments immediately after polling ends.
In simple terms, exit poll surveys are composed of responses from voters about whom they have cast their vote for. The analysis outline estimated seat shares, shifts in vote share and district-level patterns. They also offer a glimpse of which political alliance may hold the advantage. The actual results will only be known after counting ends on November 14.
Where to watch Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025
Readers can track the exit poll broadcasts live on financialexpress.com and other major TV news channels. Leading pollsters such as Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat, and Today’s Chanakya will publish projections through India Today, ABP News, Times Now, Aaj Tak, Republic TV and other outlets.
Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2025 Live Updates: Who Will Win As Per Exit Poll Results of Bihar RJD vs JD(U) vs Jan Suraaj
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: ADR report sheds light on candidates of phase 2
The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) on November 4 released its assessment of the candidates contesting the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, examining the self-sworn affidavits of 1,297 out of 1,302 nominees. The analysis reveals that nearly one-third of these candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves.
According to the report, 415 candidates (32%) face criminal charges, while 341 (26%) are accused in serious offences, including murder, attempted murder, kidnapping, assault, corruption, bribery and other non-bailable crimes carrying potential sentences of five years or more. READ MORE
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: Latest voter turnout
The latest voter turnout in the second phase at 1.30 pm was recorded at 47.62%. The exit polls will follow post the voting is over at 5 pm.
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: Lessons from 2020 Bihar exit poll misses
The 2020 Bihar election exposed just how unpredictable the state’s political landscape can be. While the exit polls misread the mood on multiple fronts, it did offer important lessons for analysts this time around.
- Caste equations, hyper-local issues, shifting alliances and last-minute loyalty flips make Bihar’s electorate one of the most complex. Exit polls in 2020 failed to capture how effectively the NDA consolidated votes. It overstated the opposition’s strength
- Many surveys may have leaned too heavily on urban or semi-urban respondents, under-representing rural pockets that ultimately played a decisive role. Non-representative sampling led to distorted projections
- High rural turnout — particularly in NDA-leaning regions — proved decisive in 2020. These late surges and election-day swings often slip through the cracks of exit poll models
- Voters sometimes choose candidates tactically — to block another alliance or based on hyper-local grievances. Such motivations frequently defy neat survey categories and throw off predictions
- Exit polls that leaned too much on past voting patterns missed evolving local dynamics and district-level issues that shaped last-minute voter choices
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: Factors that can determine accuracy of exit polls
Exit polls are carried out by speaking to voters immediately after they cast their ballots, with the goal of estimating election outcomes based on whom they say they voted for. Their accuracy, however, depends on factors such as sample size, methodology, margin of error and whether respondents answer honestly.
While not always precise, exit polls provide an early read on voter sentiment and often shape political debate and public expectations in the period between polling and the declaration of official results. The results for the Bihar assembly elections will be announced on November 14.
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: How accurate were exit polls in 2020 Bihar elections?
The actual results contradicted most exit poll predictions. Ultimately, the NDA led by Nitish Kumar narrowly won, securing 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan's 110.
Exit polls in 2020 substantially overestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects and underestimated the NDA’s performance.
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: What did exit polls project in 2020 election?
Most exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election 2020 predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav or projected a hung assembly. The last exit poll projected a tough contest for the NDA (BJP-JD(U) alliance).
Key exit poll predictions 2020:
ABP News-CVoter: Mahagathbandhan 108-131 seats, NDA 104-128 seats, LJP 1-3 seats, Others 4-8 seats. CVoter’s survey suggested a close race and possible hung assembly
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat: Mahagathbandhan 118-138, NDA 91-117
India Today-Axis My India: Mahagathbandhan 139-161, NDA 69-91. This survey projected a big win for the opposition alliance
Times Now-CVoter: NDA 116, Mahagathbandhan 120, LJP 1, Others 6
News18-Today’s Chanakya: Mahagathbandhan 180 (±11), NDA 102 (±11).
Poll of Polls: Mahagathbandhan 133, NDA 100, Others 11 (average of major exit polls)
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: Polling for second and final phase underway
In the ongoing polling in Bihar, 31.38% of 3.7 crore voters have exercised their franchise till 11 am. The first phase of the state polls saw a record high voter turnout of 65.08%. It was the highest ever for the state in an assembly election so far.
Bihar Exit Polls Result 2025 Live: Exit polls to be out in evening
The second and final phase of Bihar Election 2025 is currently underway. Polling in 122 constituencies will end at 5 pm today. Keeping in line with the ECI guidelines, the exit polls will be published once the voting is concluded. The exit poll analysis will start coming in from 6.30 pm.