Chhattisgarh elections 2018: Former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi has sent a note of caution to Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) saying his newly formed political outfit Janata Congress Chhattisgarh and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are capable of “springing a surprise” on them. In an interview to Hindustan Times, Jogi, the first Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, asserted that his party and the BSP enjoy a decent following among the extremely backward classes and the Scheduled Castes and both parties will work in tandem to pull off an upset win.

Jogi was a prominent face Congress but chose to part ways ahead of polls. Pointing to chinks in the armour of Congress and BJP, Jogi exuded confidence that he will steer his party to capitalise on them. He claimed that both Congress and BJP are suffering from a leadership crisis and alleged that their leaders are mostly outsiders and have failed to connect with the masses. Raising the local versus outsider debate, Jogi said that he was hopeful of becoming the Chief Minister as people have realised that they need someone who has an understanding of the local issues and can resolve them.

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Having ruled Chhattisgarh for three full terms now, the BJP is faced with anti-incumbency. While the Raman Singh government has struggled to address some basic issues, the Congress, on the other hand, is in disarray with infighting pulling down the party. “We have a strong alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati. And, we have fielded strong candidates,” Jogi says. Talking about Congress losing the 2003 assembly under his leadership, Jogi alleged that the forces rigged the election for the BJP. He also claimed Congress ignored him in subsequent elections.

Chhattisgarh has always been a closely fought election and despite winning three elections, Raman Singh has not had a runaway victory. In 2003 and 2008 elections, the BJP won 50 seats against 37 and 38 seats for the Congress, respectively. The BJP’s tally went down by one seat to 49 and Congress gained one to win 39 seats in 2013. In such closely contested elections, smaller factors also have the potential to tip the scale either way. In this case, the Congress could end up being the victim. In fact, the party even admitted recently that Ajit Jogi’s foray in Chhattisgarh with Mayawati could end up hurting the Congress more than any other party. In an interview to The Indian Express, Deo said that Jogi does not have the base to project himself as an alternative to the BJP and Congress in the state and would fail miserably.

“There is no arithmetic that gives an alternate government, either the Congress or the BJP. I have always held that Jogi is hurting the Congress more than the BJP because he was compromised,” he said.

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Even though Jogi is confident of becoming the CM and forming the government in an alliance with BSP, opinion polls predict that Singh and BJP will be able to see off the challenges from Congress and Janata Congress Chhattisgarh as well as the incumbency factor to form a government for the fourth consecutive time. However, the prospects of this alliance in the future scheme of things in the state’s politics are immense. The primary reason behind Jogi’s optimism is the strong presence of SC and ST population in the state.

Population and electoral data reveals that 39 out of 90 assembly constituencies are reserved for SC and ST categories in the state. As per the population census 2011, Chhattisgarh has a population of 20,833,803. Among them, 2,418,722 are Scheduled Castes and 6,616,596 are Scheduled Tribes. The proportions of SC and ST populations are 11.6 per cent and 31.8 per cent. Jogi has claimed that Maywati’s BSP has a strong following in certain pockets across the state and this will work in their favour.

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Knowing that Chhattisgarh since its inception has witnessed bipartisan poll fight between Congress and BJP, Jogi has emphasised that the trend will change this time. He alleged that Congress has become a “divided house” and incumbent Chief Minister Raman Singh has failed.