Axis My India Bihar Election Prediction Out: BJP losing ground, RJD emerges as biggest gainer

Axis My India 2025 Bihar Elections Exit Poll Released: As Bihar prepares to declare the results of its 2025 Assembly elections on November 14, exit polls are offering early insights into voter trends. The Axis My India exit poll highlights employment and migration as key issues shaping voter preferences, while also noting that the image and credibility of political leaders continue to play an important role.

Axis My India Bihar NDA vs Mahagathbandhan prediction

Axis My India conducted a comprehensive survey covering various age groups, income levels, and regions of Bihar. According to the poll, voters considered not only government schemes and election promises but also caste and candidate profiles when casting their votes.

The exit poll projects the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with a 43% vote share, while the Grand Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) is estimated to secure 41%. Specific caste-based trends were also observed: “NDA is expected to get 6 percent of Yadav votes, while 90 percent and 80 percent of Muslim votes are expected to go to the Grand Alliance. 56% of Dalit and tribal votes are seen going directly to NDA, while 32% of Ravidas community votes are seen going to NDA,” the survey noted.

The Axis My India exit poll suggest that educated voters have gone for the MGB, while those less educated have chosen the NDA and Nitish Kumar.

Record Voter Turnout in Two-Phase Polling

Voting for the 243 Bihar Assembly seats was conducted in two phases, on November 6 and November 11. The first phase recorded a robust turnout of 64.46%, marking one of the highest early-phase participations in recent elections. Following this, both major coalitions have confidently claimed victory.

With the vote counting scheduled for November 14, political analysts are closely watching trends indicated by exit polls, noting that a tightly contested battle could define the next government in Bihar.

In the 2020 Bihar Legislative Assembly election for a total of 243 seats, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured the majority with 125 seats to form the government. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the single largest party, but its alliance (Mahagathbandhan) could not cross the majority mark.