Bihar election 2025 exit polls: With voting for phase 1 concluded and phase 2 underway for the Bihar election 2025, all eyes are now on the results that the Election Commission of India (ECI) will declare on November 14. Voters across 243 seats voted in large numbers, days after intense campaigning by political parties in the state.
However, before the results, the exit polls will be keenly watched as they tend to show what the result day might look like. While there have been occasions when the actual numbers have trumped the exit polls, yet, the show is what everyone watches.
As everyone prepares for the exit polls of Bihar election 2025, here’s what it looked like the last time.
Bihar election 2020 exit polls
In 2020, the dynamics, issues, concerns and narrative were different; and so were the alliances and their seat distribution. Here’s what the exit polls projected five years back:
| Exit Poll Agency | NDA (BJP + JD(U) + VIP + HAM) | MGB (RJD + Congress + Left) | LJP (fought alone) | Others | Party-wise Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic TV–Jan Ki Baat | 91–117 | 118–138 | 5–8 | 3–6 | BJP: 60–70, JD(U): 20–30, RJD: 80–90 |
| Times Now–C Voter | 116 | 120 | 1 | 6 | BJP: 70, JD(U): 46, RJD: 91, INC: 25 |
| India Today–Axis My India | 69–91 | 139–161 | 3–5 | 3–8 | BJP: 39–50, JD(U): 30–41, RJD: 96–106 |
| ABP News–C Voter | 104–128 | 108–131 | 1–3 | 4–8 | BJP: 54–64, JD(U): 42–48, RJD: 91–103 |
| News18–Today’s Chanakya | 102 ±11 | 180 ±11 | 5 ±3 | 6 ±4 | RJD projected strongest single party |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh–People’s Pulse | 90–110 | 120–140 | 5–10 | 5–10 | BJP: 55–65, JD(U): 25–35, RJD: 85–95 |
| NewsX–Polstrat | 90–110 | 108–123 | 4–6 | 6–8 | BJP: 60, JD(U): 30, RJD: 90 |
| India TV–People’s Pulse | 97–119 | 106–130 | 1–3 | 6–10 | BJP: 60, JD(U): 35, RJD: 90 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 120–127 | 95–102 | 5–8 | 8–10 | BJP: 70–75, JD(U): 45–50, RJD: 80–85 |
Almost all the exit polls predicted a major win for Tejashwi, or a close contest, hinting at trouble for the NDA.
Did exit polls prove right? Bihar election 2020 result
In a word No. It was the Nitish Kumar-led NDA alliance that won the neck-and-neck battle back in 2020. Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, while the BJP was second with 74 seats.
JD(U)’s fell below expectation and scored 43, whereas smaller NDA allies, Hindustani Awam Morcha and the Vikassheel Insaan Party, both won four seats each.
In all, NDA bagged 125 seats, just clearing the majority mark of 122 while the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats. The result led to allegations, MLA switching sides and multiple controversies – at the end, Nitish Kumar returned as the CM.