Assembly Elections 2022: Opinion poll shows BJP retaining UP with reduced margin, AAP-Congress to battle it out in Punjab

As the Assembly polls in five states are nearing, the latest round of ABP-CVoter pre-poll survey shows that the BJP’s road to victory will be a difficult one. Even as the survey predicts victory for the saffron party in Uttar Pradesh, it will suffer a huge loss in seat-share while the party and its allies will struggle to win even a single seat in Punjab.

The poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 people across 690 seats with a margin of error of +/- 3% to +/- 5%. Let’s take a state-wise look at what the latest projections suggest for the forthcoming assembly polls scheduled to be held early neat year.

Uttar Pradesh

The pre-poll survey indicates that the BJP and its allies will manage to retain its place in the state, despite losing about 108 of its seats. The BJP+ is projected to win around 217 seats (213-221), Samajwadi Party 156 seats (152-160), BSP 18 seats (16-20) and Congress 8 (6-10) seats.

BJP+ is also projected to garner around 40.7 per cent of votes, SP+ 31.1 per cent, BSP 15.1 per cent, and INC 8.9 per cent. The projected range of seats for BJP+ is 213-221 and for SP+ 152-160. The loss for the BJP, thus, seems to be a direct gain for the Samajwadi Party.

Punjab

In Punjab, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party may involve in a neck-and-neck contest with none of the parties touching the majority mark, leaving the Independent candidates to be kingmakers, as per the latest survey. Meanwhile, the BJP and its allies might struggle even for a single seat in the state.

Congress is expected to accrue 46 seats, SAD 20, and AAP 51. INC is projected to garner 34.9 per cent votes, SAD 20.6 per cent, AAP 36.5 per cent, and BJP 2.2 per cent. The projected range of seats for INC is 42-50 and for AAP 47-53.

Uttarakhand

The CVoter results for Uttarakhand indicate that BJP might just about win, with the Congress coming close but falling short of the majority mark. BJP is projected to accrue 38 seats, INC 32, and AAP and others 0. The BJP is also projected to garner 41.4 per cent votes, INC 36.3 per cent, and AAP 11.8 per cent.

Goa

The BJP is expected to retain power comfortably here as the survey has projected 21 seats for the party, which is the exact majority mark in the state. The AAP may bag 5 and the Congress 4. BJP is also projected to garner 35.7 per cent votes, AAP 23.6 per cent, and INC 18.6 per cent.

Manipur

In Manipur, the BJP is eyeing a satisfactory win. According to the survey, the BJP is likely to win 25-29 seats, the Congress 20-24, Naga People’s Front (NPF) 4-8, and others 3-7 in the 60-member Assembly.