The Rs 5-lakh-crore fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is likely to see a strong pick-up in demand in calendar year 2026, led by robust macro-economic factors, a report by Worldpanel by Numerator said.
The rebound, the research agency said, comes after nearly two years of sluggish growth as inflationary pressures and urban slowdown woes hurt demand. Numerator was formerly known as Kantar. Worldpanel by Numerator provides household consumption data across FMCG categories.
FMCG volume growth, according to the agency, will likely touch 5% in the first few months of the year, at a time when food inflation remains low and GST cuts have made everyday items cheaper.
What did K Ramakrishnan say?
“RBI’s consumer confidence index also indicates that confidence is coming back. With the macro-economic indicators being strong and FMCG also seeing an uptick correspondingly, we expect the coming quarters to strongly build on the momentum,” K Ramakrishnan, MD, South Asia, Worldpanel by Numerator, said.
Most FMCG companies have been alluding to the same, saying that the sector will revert to the growth path as macro fundamentals remain favourable. On Tuesday, Godrej Consumer (GCPL) said that it saw demand conditions progressively improving, led by falling inflation and improved affordability in its December quarter update. Previously, both Dabur and Marico had said that they saw a gradual improvement in consumption in the coming quarters, even as the December quarter had shown green shoots in terms of recovery.
What does Worldpanel suggest?
Worldpanel by Numerator noted that the recovery in FMCG was becoming clear in the data it had pulled out for the quarter ended October 2025. The sector registered a growth of 5.3% for the quarter, which is the best growth registered since the quarter ended April 2024.
“It is at least a percentage point higher than the growth seen in the quarter-ended July 2025 or the quarter ended October 2024,” Ramakrishnan said. But, for the 12 months ended October 2025, FMCG growth at 4.2% remains behind that of the previous year’s 4.9%, he said.
“The late turnaround means that 2025 FMCG will remain behind 2024 FMCG by a distance,” he said.
The report also highlighted a stagnation in the average number of shopping trips for buying FMCG products, which remained at 157 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Also, 2024 saw 16 FMCG categories adding at least 1% penetration point. In 2025, the number came down to 12 categories, as adoption rates remained slower versus the previous year.