The monthly gross goods and services tax (GST) collections for November-December (October and November transactions) came in 10.8% below the monthly average observed during the April-October period reflecting the initial impact of the GST rate rationalisation.
The average GST collection in November-December stood at Rs 1.77 lakh crore (including cess), which was Rs 21,431 crore below the monthly average of Rs 1.98 lakh crore observed during April-October period.
What do the November-December figures reflect?
The November-December figures represent the first two full months of GST collections based on transactions under the post-rationalisation regime (reflecting October-November activity). Including compensation cess, the November-December period recorded a 1.3% y-o-y decline in gross GST mop-up, underscoring the immediate revenue trade-off from the sweeping rate cuts.
The GST 2.0 reforms, approved by the GST Council in September 2025, simplified the slab structure primarily to 5% and 18%, with a 40% rate for luxury and sin goods, abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. This move aimed to boost consumption, reduce compliance burdens, and align rates more rationally but led to short-term moderation in domestic revenues.
Year-on-Year growth
Cumulatively, the GST collection recorded a growth of 9% (year-on-year) in April to October period. While in November-December period, the GST growth excluding cess was 3.37%. In November, total collections, including cess, contracted 4% (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 lakh crore while in December, it grew 1.3% (Y-o-Y) on year to Rs 1.79 lakh crore.
Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global, said GST revenue slippage of 0.25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Centre in FY26. he Central government projected Rs 11.78 lakh crore GST collection for it in FY26, including Rs 10.1 lakh crore C-GST and Rs 1.67 lakh crore compensation cess. This represented a 14.8% growth over FY25 provisional figures, Arora said, adding that the actual growth in Centre’s GST revenues in the current fiscal could turn out to be around 6%.
“We still think the Centre could scrape through and meet the fiscal target this year, despite massive tax revenues slippage. Massive Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Public Sector Units transfers and cuts in non-core capital expenditure and miscellaneous revenue expenditure could help offset the taxation miss,” Arora said. The government has targeted a fiscal deficit at 4.4% of the GDP for FY26.
Manoj Mishra, Partner and Tax Controversy Management Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat, said that the expected overall GST revenue growth (Centre + States) for FY26 should moderate to around 4-6%, taking aggregate collections to roughly Rs 22-23 lakh crore. In FY25, total collections stood at Rs 22.08 lakh crore. For the January-March period, Mishra projected average monthly GST mop-up of Rs 1.8-2 lakh crore.
Saurabh Agarwal, Tax Partner, EY India, said that as long as monthly collections remain resilient within the Rs 1.7 to 1.8 lakh crore range, the trajectory remains firmly in line with their expectations.
Mishra noted that even with the recent moderation, gross GST revenues in the first nine months of FY26 have still grown by about 8.6% growth to nearly Rs 16.5 lakh crore, reflecting how elevated the revenue base has boosted buoyancy over recent years. The system is now transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to one of more mature, sustainable growth, he said.
With domestic demand and industrial activity holding firm, any revenue slippage is more likely to be cyclical than structural, implying only a limited and manageable impact on the fiscal deficit path, Mishra said.