Indian shrimp exporters are expected to post a revenue growth of 8-10 per cent this fiscal as demand from key importing nations recovers and realisations improve, said a report by Crisil Ratings. The revenue growth, it added, will be despite the higher duties for Indian exporters in the United States (US) and locational advantages enjoyed by key competing nations.
Despite supply chain disruptions and higher logistics costs because of geopolitical uncertainties, Crisil said that higher revenues and lower procurement costs will help Indian shrimp exporters sustain operating margin around 7 per cent this fiscal.
Crisil Ratings analysed 69 shrimp exporters, accounting for almost two-thirds of the industry’s revenues, to reach the conclusions.
India, Ecuador and Vietnam account for around two-thirds of global shrimp exports, while the US, China and Japan consume more than half of the global produce, it added. In the past two fiscals, Ecuador surpassed India to become the largest shrimp exporter, backed by higher acreage, favourable climate and significant investments to improve the genetic quality of brood stock. Ecuador also benefited from its proximity to the US and the European Union as Asian exporters grappled with higher logistics costs amid container shortages.
However, it maintained that recent investigations by the US Department of Commerce (USDOC) with regards to countervailing duty (CVD) and anti-dumping duty (ADD) on shrimp exporting nations could have a bearing on their competitiveness.
“Indian shrimp exporters stand to benefit as demand improves for two reasons. First, lower channel inventories at importers’ end, who had reduced purchases in the past few months, will need to be replenished. Second, higher spending on discretionary and food items, as the economic outlook improves for Western economies (the key consumers), will drive-up volume and realisations for exporters. Volume and realisations of Indian shrimp exporters will go up in tandem by 4-5% each, driving the revenue growth,” said Himank Sharma, Director, CRISIL Ratings.
Indian exporters and key competing nations will keep a watch on final determination of CVD, along with the outcome of ADD investigations by the USDOC on Ecuador and Indonesia. A higher ADD for the competing countries could be a shot in the arm for Indian exporters.
According to Crisil, procurement costs for Indian shrimp players will reduce this fiscal year because of better production vis-à-vis last fiscal, when the summer crop had taken a hit due to sudden rise in temperatures early in the season. Working capital requirement will moderate as purchase costs reduce. To add, surplus processing capacities available with Indian exporters will limit capex, which will reduce dependence on external borrowings.
“Strong cash flows kept the balance sheets of shrimp exporters comfortable in the past decade. As debt addition remains muted this fiscal, and cash generation will improve due to better revenues and stable operating margin, gearing and interest coverage will improve. Credit profiles, thus, will strengthen over the medium term,” said Nagarjun Alaparthi, Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings.