India’s merchandise exports are expected to grow 1.85% on year in October-December quarter to $ 107 billion, according to a forecast.
“Non-oil exports are forecast to amount $ 91.7 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 7.39%, during Q3 of FY 2025. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount $ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.8%,” the forecast by Export-Import Bank of India said.
The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in the last quarter of the financial year (Jan-March 2025).
Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing, it said.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global uncertain prospects in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the middle east and west Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, among other factors.
In the second quarter (July-September) the Exim Bank had forecast goods exports of $ 111.7 b, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.2%. The actual exports during the period came at $ 103 billion.
The forecast is based on the model Exim Bank has developed in-house to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.