The credit quality outlook for fiscal 2025 remains positive with upgrades continuing to outpace downgrades, said a report by CRISIL Ratings. This, it added, was driven by domestic demand, low corporate debt levels and tailwinds from the ongoing infrastructure build-out. The CRISIL Ratings’ credit quality framework for the corporate and infrastructure sectors – the COIN framework – provided credit quality outlook for FY25 on 38 sectors that accounted for ~72 per cent of the rated debt.
The CRISIL Ratings credit ratio (rating upgrades to downgrades) moderated in the second half of fiscal 2024 but remained elevated at 1.79 times compared with 1.91 times in the first half. In all, there were 409 upgrades and 228 downgrades in the last fiscal year.
The upgrade rate dipped a marginal ~70 basis points to 12.0 per cent compared with the first half. Sectors gaining from strong domestic consumption and government spending dominated the upgrades. The infrastructure and linked sectors outperformed the CRISIL Ratings portfolio with construction, renewable power and road assets leading the upgrades.
The downgrade rate, at 6.7 per cent, remains closer to the 10-year average, the report said. Export-linked sectors, such as textile and seafood saw a higher downgrade rate due to subdued global demand or high-cost inventory that impacted profitability.
That said, the reaffirmation rate remained steady at ~81 per cent.
Gurpreet Chhatwal, Managing Director, CRISIL Ratings, said, “The three key pillars of India Inc’s credit quality — deleveraged balance sheets, sustained domestic demand and government-led capex — kept the upgrade rate elevated in the second half of fiscal 2024. That’s above the 10-year average for the sixth consecutive half-year. While commodity prices have softened, revenue of upgraded companies grew ~13 per cent in fiscal 2024 largely led by a pick-up in volume. With balance sheets in most sectors at their healthiest, capacity utilisation around peak levels and expected interest rate cuts, a broad-based pick-up in private capex is finally in sight.”
Key takeaways:
For fiscal 2025, CRISIL said, as many as 21 of 26 corporate sectors have strong to favourable credit quality outlook, driven by robust balance sheets and healthy operating cash flows — expected to be as much, or higher, than in fiscal 2024. These, it said, include auto-component manufacturers, hospitality and education sector companies where the credit quality is supported by healthy domestic demand. It also included sectors that are getting benefits from the government’s infrastructure spending, such as construction companies, and steel, cement and capital goods manufacturers.
Four sectors namely specialty chemicals, agrochemicals, textile cotton spinning and diamond polishers, the report stated, are facing headwinds given their dependence on global macroeconomic conditions, which are subdued at present. Barring diamond polishers, the other three are expected to witness partial recovery, following a challenging fiscal 2024. That said, these sectors do have strong balance sheets and hence the outlook on the sectors is stable to moderate
Only the auto dealers sector is expected to have a moderate credit quality outlook. While cash flows here are expected to grow, balance sheets have relatively higher leverage to fund inventory needs, CRISIL said.
All 12 infrastructure sectors have a strong to favourable credit quality outlook. They are benefiting from government initiatives in renewable energy and logistics. Residential real estate, meanwhile, is riding on buoyant consumer demand, with inventory levels expected to drop further in fiscal 2025 despite new launches.
Notably, none of the sectors analysed has a negative credit quality outlook, CRISIL stated.
Furthermore, the CRISIL report stated that the financial sector’s (banks and non-banks) strong credit quality is supported by steady credit growth, healthy capitalisation and stable asset quality.
For banks, credit growth is expected to remain healthy in fiscal 2025, but grow a tad slower at ~14 per cent, compared with ~16 per cent estimated for fiscal 2024, given the likely moderation in economic growth. “A key monitorable here would be the ability to mobilise cost-effective deposits. While rising deposit rates could impact net interest margins, asset quality metrics are likely to be benign with gross non-performing assets continuing to decline,” it said.
For non-banks, growth in assets under management may moderate to 15-17 per cent in fiscal 2025 from ~18 per cent in fiscal 2024, with regulatory measures curtailing expansion of the unsecured loan book even as traditional segments grow at a steady pace. The asset quality outlook is stable for most non-bank segments, but remains monitorable for unsecured and microfinance loans.
Somasekhar Vemuri, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, said, “The outlook on India Inc’s credit quality is positive for the first half of fiscal 2025, with upgrades expected to outnumber the downgrades. This is largely led by tailwinds from the domestic economy and despite export-linked sectors only gradually ticking up in the wake of uneven global recovery. Domestically, food inflation still weighs on rural demand even as the overall inflationary pressure eases. To maintain its favourable position, India Inc will need to be watchful of supply- chain disruptions from escalation in geopolitical tensions.”