The ghost of a telecom sector duopoly may be far from buried in the upcoming year even though 2025 saw a landmark Supreme Court judgment providing cash-strapped Vodafone Idea (Vi) crucial breathing room.
For Vi, the focus will be on getting the house in order, while for peers Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, the year is expected to be one where pricing power, enterprise demand and network readiness will determine who captures the limited pockets of growth still left in the market.
What do analysts say?
“A tariff hike in the Jan-March quarter is most likely to be the first major event in the sector. The impact of the July 2024 tariff hike on subscribers and revenues is behind the industry, and with Jio preparing for its IPO the timing for the next tariff revision lines up,” a telecom analyst said.
Jio and Airtel are poised to lead further tariff actions, with their 2026 performance likely to hinge on how effectively they execute and defend these increases. The quantum and nature of the next round of tariff hikes will be different though.
Experts said that there is not much scope to increase entry level pricing now. The estimated price hike is in the 10-12% range, they added, and price interventions could be more nuanced with a rejigging of offerings accompanying the rise in tariffs.
Premiumisation to define next leg of revenue expansion
Premiumisation will define the next leg of revenue expansion for the two largest operators, as subscriber growth alone is no longer sufficient to deliver the ARPU lift needed for the industry’s next phase. For both Airtel and Jio, the strategy is shifting from simply adding users to deepening monetisation through higher-value plans, convergence, bundling and digital adjacencies. This reflects a broader reality: India’s wireless subscriber base is now largely saturated, and quality of revenue matters far more than quantity.
On the consumer side, Airtel said its strategy is centred on strengthening its premium base and pushing digital-led growth across services. “Our overarching strategy is anchored in premiumising our portfolio and driving executional excellence to deliver consistent, high-quality performance,” an Airtel spokesperson said. The company pointed to a deeper focus on network upgrades, multi-segment offerings and digital services to enhance monetisation.
Airtel also expects the home broadband segment to play a larger role in topline expansion. “By 2026, our growth will be increasingly driven by expanding monetization beyond mobility, with a strong focus on home broadband and digital services,” the spokesperson said. The operator highlighted its dual strategy of accelerating fibre rollouts and scaling 5G fixed-wireless access to reach new households quickly and cost-effectively.
The premium push is reinforced by targeted ARPU initiatives across Airtel’s base. “Our strategy to deepen customer wallet share and drive ARPU growth centers on mix improvement and digital enablement, particularly within the mass-premium and premium segments,” the spokesperson said. Airtel said AI-enabled personalisation is now integral to delivering higher-value customer journeys and expanding uptake of its convergence, financial services and home broadband products.
“Vi will benefit from this push for premiumisation since it will be able to effect tariff revisions without the overhang of a massive churn. Additionally, all three telcos are now more conscious to retain quality customers,” an industry analyst said.
Experts also observed that Vi’s core base is like Airtel’s core base, offering stickiness, and a higher share of wallet. This will be a silver lining for the distressed telco since latest subscriber data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India indicates that the operator’s investments in network enhancement are not yet resulting in customer retention or stickiness. After months of decline in subscriber churn, Vi lost as many as 2 million subscribers in the month of October, signalling a fragile recovery which is yet to stabilise. Analysts reckon it will take the telco a while before it sees consistent growth in its operational KPIs, and for now, the focus will be on stemming customer outflow, and defending its declining market share.
Industry-wide, 2026 is expected to see enterprise 5G move decisively from pilot projects to scaled deployments, shaped heavily by the rise in AI workloads and the shift towards Industry 4.0 across manufacturing, logistics and automotive. Enterprises are beginning to demand networks that can handle low latency, device density and real-time compute, creating new revenue lines for operators with the right infrastructure mix.
Airtel Business expects this momentum to accelerate. “2026 is expected to be the year where 5G in enterprises will increasingly move from pilot to scaled-in deployments particularly where low latency and high device density are mission-critical,” Sharat Sinha, CEO – Airtel Business, said. He added that manufacturing, logistics and automotive are likely to lead adoption, with healthcare and agriculture emerging as the next wave of scale.
Rising AI workloads are reshaping network investments. “As AI is driving network demand from a bandwidth story to a compute, storage and cloud story, we are investing across all three layers of hyperscale data centres, edge and the network to deliver a truly differentiated experience for our customers,” Sinha said. Airtel Business expects its data centre capacity to more than double, supported by AI-ready designs, 120+ edge locations and a heavily fibreised national backbone built for low latency and high throughput.
The company believes its integrated approach will be a key differentiator. “As a true full-stack technology partner, we are uniquely bringing together our nationwide 5G and fiber connectivity, data centres, our sovereign Airtel Cloud and zero-trust security to seamlessly host, move and protect AI workloads end-to-end,” Sinha said.
Jio and Vi did not respond to queries regarding their plans for 2026 sent by FE.
Beyond the operational strategies of the telcos, the industry also saw the term digital trust come into sharp focus, highlighted by the formalisation of the DPDP rules.
“As 2025 closes, the sector’s focus is firmly on strengthening digital trust and ensuring that future networks are secure, reliable and inclusive. With the foundations for 5G scale, spectrum reform and unified safeguards now in place, India’s telecom industry is moving into a phase where innovation and trust will define competitiveness, setting the stage for a decade of resilient and globally benchmarked digital connectivity,” SP Kochhar, director-general, Cellular Operators Association of India, said. The COAI is an industry body that represents the three private telcos.
