By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan

This years’ BRICS Summit was held from 22-24 August 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa, after the country took up the one-year rotating chairmanship in January 2023. The theme of the 2023 Summit was: “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism.” Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill had coined the BRIC acronym in 2001 to describe the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The first BRIC Summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia in 2009 in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis; South Africa joined in 2010, making it BRICS.

Notably, 2023was the first in-person BRICS Summit since 2019 (meetings took place virtually during the pandemic). The Russian President participated virtually as he is under a warrant of arrest from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes in Ukraine; he was represented in person by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Around 67 leaders from the Global South were invited to attend and meet the BRICS leaders in outreach sessions. Among the invitees was Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi-Russia’s close military ally. The hosts clarified that did not mean the bloc is becoming pro-Russian or anti-western. French President Emmanuel Macron had indicated he would like to attend but was not invited. Heads of 20 international organizations were invited including United Nations Secretary General (UNSG) and African Union (AU) Chairperson. Over 40 countries expressed interest in joining BRICS and 23 countries formally applied to be part of the bloc.

The five BRICS countries account for more than 42% of the world’s population, 30% of its territory, 23% of global GDP, and 18% of global trade. However only 6% of the total trade of the five BRICS countries is with each other. South Africa is the smallest in the alliance in terms of population and economic weight. BRICS is a highly diverse group: 3 members, India, Brazil, and South Africa are democracies, while China and Russia are not. Two of these, India and China have had violent border clashes in recent years; India has also been contesting all Chinese unfair trade practices. Further, some are commodity exporters while others are net importers. While Russia and China are keen to give the bloc an anti-western posture, concerns also exist that expansion could draw in nations to make BRICS a counterforce to the EU and US, which Brazil and India both oppose. At the same time, drawn from different continents and backgrounds, each member brings to the table its unique world view and development model.

Over the years, in a world full of blocs, the death knell of BRICS was predicted. While BRICS cannot monumentally change the world, successful intra BRICS cooperation is considered to have had a major impact on the global order, be it by discussing reduction in tariff barriers to facilitating trade or having yearly meetings of the national security advisers. For Russia, engaging with other emerging economies helps it avoid sanctions imposed on it by the west after Crimea and more recently, Ukraine. BRICS provides India additional opportunities to engage with Russia and China, share its concerns on terrorism with a wider audience, and offer its soft power in medicine, digitalization etc. For China, BRICS remains a key building bloc to its vision of a more Asia centric world or some prefer to call it a Sino-centric one. Through BRICS, Brazil has been able to engage with Asian countries in a major way helping its strategic orientation towards Asia involving not only the government, but the private sector, the media, academia, and society.

Speaking at the Summit, PM Modi called for a strengthened BRICS that will be (B) breaking barriers, (R) revitalizing economies, (I) inspiring innovation, (C) creating opportunities, and (S) shaping the future. He offered Indian Digital Public infrastructure to BRICS partners. He also proposed undertaking skill mapping, skilling and promoting mobility among BRICS countries.The visit coincided with the successful soft landing of Chandrayaan 3 on the South Pole of the moon, a global first; during the Summit PM Modi proposed creation of a BRICS Space exploration Consortium.

PM Modi focused on the success of BRICS over the past 15 years, specifically the New Development Bank (NDB), and the safety net of contingent reserve management. During the Summit, the NDB signed a loan agreement for a water project in Lesotho. PM Modi called for time bound reforms of the world’s political and financial institutions including the UNSC and WTO. He urged BRICS to send a global message of unity and not polarization. Brazil warned that BRICS should not rival US or G7 economies and emphasized the climate crisis as a priority. Putin warned against ‘ongoing neocolonialism’ and said he was ready for a dialogue to stop the war in Ukraine. Chinese President Xi sought accelerated expansion, criticized the ‘new cold war mentality’ across the globe and said that development was not a privilege of the few. South African President Ramaphosa focused on partnerships with Africa and how BRICS could put the continents’ interest on its agenda,of particular concern being global payment systems and international financial architecture.

The expansion of BRICS was talked about most during the Summit. South Africa had proposed expanding the membership in 2018, but other members-notably Russia and China-were reluctant at the time. A major decision of the 2022 virtual Summit was to begin the process. Ironically, it is now Russia and China that are pushing to expand the membership (feeling isolated as they are over Ukraine, Taiwan, and China’s expansionist policies respectively). At the same time, a big push for the bloc’s expansion is coming from the countries of the Global South as they assert themselves for greater say in western dominated global institutions that have failed in resolving crises arising out of pandemics, Ukraine war, global inflation, and recession. India and Brazil which had earlier been lukewarm to the idea of expansion endorsed it during the Summit. PM Modi exhorted BRICS to build consensus on the admission criteria,while supporting permanent membership of the African Union in G20. President Lula of Brazil said BRICS should not be an exclusive club but rather a multilateral institution, and particularly favored the inclusion of Argentina.

Accordingly, BRICS leaders reached consensus during the Summit and in the first phase of the expansion process decided to invite Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Argentina, UAE, and Saudi Arabia to join from January 1, 2024. Discussions on further expansion will continue. PM Modi insisted on a membership criterion and decision by consensus (though India enjoys historic relations with them, all new members except perhaps UAE lean towards China). Further, the foreign ministers have been tasked with developing the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries by the next summit.

Ahead of the Summit, at the foreign ministers’ segment, the topics of discussion included the need for BRICS to conduct trade and financial transactions in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar. The notion of de-dollarization of the global economy is, however, unlikely to materialize, not at least in the next 10-15 years, as currently over 50% of global trade is in US dollars (while the Chinese renminbi accounts for just 3-4%). It was agreed at the Summit to work towards this issue and the BRICS Finance Ministers and Central bank Governors were tasked with considering the modalities of trading in local currencies and payment platforms and report to the next Summit.

The 26-page Johannesburg 2 declaration adopted at the conclusion of the Summit reflected the above-mentioned decisions and issues of global economic, financial, and political importance. It also calls for expeditious finalization and early adoption of the India initiated Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) within the UN Framework, while maintaining that ‘terrorism should not be related to any religion, nationality, civilization or ethnic group’. The declaration also called for peaceful resolution of global conflicts, including in Niger and a ceasefire in Sudan. PM Modi and Chinese President Xi who met on the sidelines of the Summit, agreed to work towards ‘expeditious disengagement’ along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC). PM Modi underlined that the maintenance of peace and tranquility in border areas and respecting LAC are essential for the normalization of India-China relationship.

Next year, Russia will assume the BRICS Chair with the expected theme of ‘strengthening multilateralism for global development and security’. Some 200 political, economic, and public events are planned before the Summit in October 2024 in the city of Kazan which promises to have a different flavour with BRICS plus.

The author is a former Indian Ambassador.

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