By Group Captain Praveer Purohit
“America is not a lie, it is a disappointment. But it can be a disappointment only because it is also a hope”- Samuel Huntington
The journey of the USA post World War II, is a fascinating subject of study that has generated diverse and often diverging opinions. In 1987, Paul Kennedy prophesied that the United States would be the first to collapse in the Cold War. The collapse happened, but of the USSR and not the USA. It was not just American military, technological and economic power that won the Cold war. Rather it was equally and in no small measure aided by the resourcefulness of its people, attractiveness to immigrants in search of a better life and not to forget American ideas of liberty and freedom.
Victory or lack of competition sometimes leads to overconfidence and arrogance. Perhaps this is what happened to the USA in the aftermath of the Cold War and the First Persian Gulf War. The rising influence of neocons within American polity was an important factor in its foreign policy framework. Writing in the Los Angeles Times in October 2020, Lt Gen H R McMaster (retd), former US NSA remarked that US foreign policy took a narcissistic turn after the Cold War. He defined strategic narcissism as, “the tendency to define problems as we would like them to be rather than as they actually are.” No wonder then, a series of mis-steps, miscalculations and blunders followed. The 9/11 terrorist attacks shook not just Americans but also the global community. While the US justifiably launched its global war on terror, the means adopted neither favoured a quick end to the scourge of terrorism nor a lasting one. The “Either you are with us or against us”, stance made the then US President appear brave domestically but reeked of a ‘my way or the highway’ attitude. Support and cooperation of the global community wavered after the initial wave of sympathy. Wars of intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq went on for long without the desired strategic outcomes. Adding to USA’s problems were the uprisings of 2010-11 against authoritarian regimes in West Asia and North Africa, commonly known as Arab Spring. Intense public pressure domestically and frantic pleas for help internationally led to a policy paradox. The fragmented politics of West Asia gave rise to greater instability and mounting challenges to American power by terrorist organizations such as Daesh, Hezbollah and the many off-shoots of Al Qaeda. The global financial crisis of 2008 couldn’t have come at a worse time. The worst economic disaster in American history after the Great Depression (1929-1939), resulted in unemployment rising to 10 percent in October 2009 and Americans losing $9.8 trillion in wealth. Thus, the first decade and half of this century saw the only super-power confronting myriad challenges in a spectrum and cultural milieu they could not adapt to quite well.
Meanwhile, competitors such as China and Russia were not idle. American preoccupation elsewhere was (mis)used by China to illegally occupy and then militarize islands and features in the South China Sea. Even as growing Chinese belligerence was evident in its ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy and territorial ‘salami slicing’, it went on an economic charm offensive by launching the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A mix of economic inducement, economic & military coercion, technological advancement through theft of intellectual property, and influence operations enabled the Chinese to market an alternate narrative to the American one. This was a direct challenge to American power and a way of communicating the terminal decline of the USA and the inevitable rise of China. Meanwhile, sensing opportunity, Russia in a revival of its pan-Slavic imperial history invaded Georgia in 2008 reducing it to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Later in 2014, it invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, besides occupying the Donbas region. A slew of nations such as Iran and North Korea kept the US on tenterhooks even as non-state actors, often with state support, complicated matters. As David Kilcullen wrote in his book, ‘The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learnt to Fight the West’, a combination of adaptable, nimble and collaborative snakes and dragons (referring to non-state and state actors) used unrestricted tools to contest American superiority. It laid bare the lack of a grand strategy and limits of an overwhelming belief that every problem required a military solution. The American withdrawal from multilateral partnerships such as Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a reticent foreign policy worsened matters, leaving allies and partners questioning American reliability. Talk of American decline gained traction and Russophiles and Sinophiles doubted its sustained ability as a significant geo-political player.
Back in 2011, in a survey conducted by Pew Research Centre, 15 of the 22 nations surveyed, opined that China would either replace or had already replaced the United States as the world’s leading superpower. Many of the respondents believed the global balance of power was shifting. And yet, the survey showed opinion of America remained favourable, at 60%. The median percentage offering a positive assessment of China was 52% while 38% rated China unfavourably. The Pew Research Centre survey for 2022 was quite revealing and pleasantly so. A median of 61% across the 17 countries surveyed had a favourable view of the USA. 79% said that the USA was a reliable partner to their country. 65% had an unfavourable view of China, a huge rise since 2011. A median of 66% across 19 countries viewed China’s influence in the world as having become stronger. But, 72% described China’s military power as a serious problem, including 37% who labelled it a ‘very serious problem’ for their country. 60% expressed confidence in Biden to do the right thing in world affairs. Contrast this with just 18% and 9% of those surveyed who expressed confidence in Xi Jinping and Putin respectively to do the right thing in world affairs.
The seriousness of the challenge to the US was not lost on its leaders. After tentative steps during the Obama administration, the pushback started during the Trump presidency and has gained momentum in the Biden administration. Revival of the Quad, punishing China for its unfair trade practices and an unambiguous National Defence Strategy 2018 was just the beginning. The Tibet Support Policy Act 2020, Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act, creation of US Space Force, increasing Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOPS) in the South China Sea and a demonstrated willingness to actively contest and overcome Chinese and Russian bullying all point to a reinvigorated USA. While the main focus has been on the Indo-Pacific, Europe has not been neglected, as evident from the support to Ukraine. Equally important have been the steps taken towards greater economic engagement with a host of countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe that seeks to build a broad consensus for mutual prosperity. Strengthening supply chains and boosting domestic industrial capacity especially in strategic areas such as semiconductors and green technology has been given an impetus. Portraying a new approach, Jake Sullivan the NSA remarked, “We will unapologetically pursue our industrial strategy at home but we are unambiguously committed to not leaving our friends behind”. In tandem with countries like Japan, the US is quietly unveiling better alternatives to BRI. It has taken the lead in addressing the debt crisis faced by many nations. Even the talk of ‘de-dollarization’ and the Renminbi (RMB) dethroning the dollar is a myth. The US dollar accounts for 88% of payments in global trade while the Chinese RMB accounts for just 7%. The US dollar accounts for almost 59% of the foreign exchange reserves globally, with the Euro having a share of 20% and the RMB is a laggard at 6%.
The quantifiable factors that portray American strength have been its technological prowess, economy, innovativeness and military capabilities. Writing the obituary of American manufacturing is premature and foolish. For it is the country which manufactured 921 warplanes in 1939 when World War II commenced. By 1944, its annual production was a staggering 96318 warplanes. Total US wartime production of military planes surpassed three lakhs. But, the USA has also drawn immense power from intangible factors such as ideas, institutions and values. The Four Freedoms speech of President Roosevelt in 1941 is an indicator of the power of ideas to transform the world into a better place. Its multi-cultural and multi-racial immigration base has been successful in weaving a global network of influence and inspired the quest for a ‘better life’. Sure, America has faltered many times and may continue to do so. Yet it has accepted imperfections and failures, and displayed an innate ability to learn, improve and rise again. Decline, as Charles Krauthammer has observed, is a choice. US choices and actions indicate its decline is not inevitable. Reinvigorated with strategic empathy and clarity, it has picked up the Chinese gauntlet and confidently taken the lead in the geo-political contest. As PM Modi embarks on his trip to the USA, this is a good omen and a reassuring one for India.
The writer served in the IAF for over 32 years and flew over 5500 hours. He spearheaded leadership development and Professional Military Education for young officers of IAF.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.