Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi is aiming at a hat-trick, which would be the first by any party in the post-Emergency era, but surveys by various agencies indicate it will be difficult for the Congress. One survey has given it a maximum 45 seats to and another has given around 50, both short of the halfway mark in the 126-member Assembly. The Congress is contesting without an alliance.
?We are going to win more seats than we did last time. And we are going to get a majority,? says Gogoi.
Last time, its tally had come down to just 53 from 75 in 2001, but it was lucky that the Bodo People?s Front (BPF) with 11 MLAs came up to support it. This time, the Congress has fielded candidates in all 11 constituencies where the BPF has sitting MLAs. Gogoi says the Congress will keep the BPF in the next government even if the ruling party wins a majority.
In fact, this election is the first since 1996 where no party, except those of the Left, has gone for any major alliance. The CPI, the CPM and the CPI(ML) have an alliance in 49 seats. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is contesting independently of the BJP. It has made adjustments with three local tribal parties, the Bodo People?s Progressive Front (BPPF), Janashakti and the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC).
?We are confident of a clear majority. But even if we win enough, we will take along with us parties that represent different tribal groups to keep the Congress out,? said AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowari.
The AGP has not fielded candidates against state BJP chief Ranjit Dutta, senior CPI leader Drupad Bargohain, CPM leader Hemen Das and AUDF legislature party chief Sirajuddin Ajmal.
The AGP, which had captured in 1985 and 1996, has suffered several major blows in the past decade. Founder president Prafulla Mahanta floated a new party after he was expelled following the 2001 debacle, and several other senior leaders left to form splinter groups. It was only in 2008 that present president Patowari managed to bring all of them back home.
For the Congress, while the AIUDF continues to be a threat as far as its traditional Muslim vote bank is concerned, the arrival of Mamata Banerjee?s Trinamool Congress has also taken away a large number of middle-level leaders.
The BJP, which had gained in the Lok Sabha polls, contested in alliance with the AGP, suffered some setbacks in the 2009 Rajya Sabha polls. Four of its legislators had to be expelled when they openly supported a Congress candidate. What has come as a relief for the BJP is the induction of AGP?s former Dibrugarh MP and general secretary Sarbananda Sonowal. Sonowal?s entry is likely to cause a major swing in favour of the BJP in the Upper Assam districts of Dibrugarh, Tinsukia and Sivasagar, which together have 17 seats. For the first time since 1978, Assam is going into the elections without Bangladeshi influx as the focal issue. Nor does the threat of Ulfa and other insurgencies loom large over the elections. Even though the Paresh Barua faction of ULFA issued a threat to the Congress, Gogoi claims he (Barua) is no longer as powerful as before.
The AGP, accused of detecting and deporting only a few thousand migrants, continues to state its commitment of implementing the Assam Accord. The BJP looks more enthusiastic, telling the people it will make Assam ?Bangladeshi-free? if voted to power. The Congress, for its part, claims it is more committed to detecting infiltrators than the AGP and BJP.
As its prime issue, the Congress is harping on peace and development that it claims to have brought about in its two consecutive terms.
The AGP and BJP have both focused on alleged rampant corruption during Gogoi?s decade in power. Both have promised to bring about a Bihar-type legislation to curb corruption and punish those guilty.
Gogoi admits there has been some corruption but says development and improvement of the common man’s lot would once again put the Congress in power. ?Corruption has come down. But since the flow of funds has gone up, the amount of money swindled by some people looks big,? says Gogoi.