A boom in the high-speed rail transport is taking off. From China to Brazil to the US, there are plans to either roll out high-speed lines or expand existing ones. India has announced intentions to be in this league with extraordinary fast trains. Corridors of action have also been identified. This could put the railways sector back on track and arrest its decline, enabling it to take on competition from low-cost airlines and fast-paced expressways for ferrying India?s next generation of commuters and cargo.

Other than saving the railways, this may also resuscitate ageing cities like Mumbai. Faster access to Mumbai could help decongest it, perhaps even regenerate the whole western region of the country, by bringing Mumbai?s adjoining regions closer to the industrialised and urbanised hub. With vast parts of the region dotted with pockets of heavy density population, the viability of a high-speed rail line is unlikely to be an issue.

Rail India Technology and Engineering Services (RITES), in cooperation with SYSTRA of France and Italferr of Italy, has conducted a feasibility study on the Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed line for the Indian railways. The study report notes that the state of the long-distance trains in India today is comparable to their state in Europe back in the 1960s. It emphasises the need for modernisation and investment in performing systems. Against this backdrop, construction of high-speed railway (HSR) lines connecting Mumbai to Pune and Ahmedabad could lead to a railways renaissance. On completion, these are sure to emerge as the preferred mode of transport for mid-range or even long-range distances within the corridor. Consequently, the report notes, such lines are sure to be financially and economically viable.

The Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad rail project could get ready by 2021 if work takes off in 2010. The expected speed levels at which these HSR lines would operate would be about 350 km/h. At this speed and without stops, the best travel time would be 40 minutes for Mumbai-Pune, and an hour and 52 minutes for Mumbai-Ahmedabad.

Today, the best available option for Mumbai-Pune railway travel is the 80-year old Deccan Queen, which is a legacy of the British Raj. The Deccan Queen still takes three hours and 20 minutes to cover the 90 kms between Mumbai and Pune. While trains to Mumbai have failed to meet the expectations of their customers, their needs are now being met by the Mumbai-Pune Expressway, whose advantages are obvious.

The report acknowledges this situation. It notes that the long-distance transport offer is subject to an intense competition from the road transport, personal car, bus and the air transport mode; the rail transport offer is not competitive with these modes, in terms of trip duration and comfort, for a growing middle class, which is valuing time more and more, and which is looking for more comfortable and fast transports. Further, the first-class share of rail traffic is extremely low and tends to decrease with distance, which tends to demonstrate the decline of the railways over the long-distance transport segment, the study notes. The report warns that without modernisation and investment in performing systems, it is very likely that the railways will face a constant decline in the near future over the long-distance transport segment, as existing and potential customers shift to better performing modes of transport.

For a city like Mumbai, implementation of a new HSR line would help in reducing the number of long-distance trains on the existing lines, freeing up paths for more suburban trains.

The report finds that there is significant market potential for HSR lines and potential HSR traffic volumes are tremendous. The Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR, traffic forecast studies show, would carry 26.6 millions passengers per year by 2021. To put this in context, the yearly Mumbai-Pune corridor traffic is estimated to be 13.2 million passengers and the Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor is estimated to have yearly traffic of around 12.0 million passengers. Traffic has been forecast for 2021 based on the 2009 data; this would go up to 104 million by 2041.

The RITES-SYSTRA-Italferr consortium has estimated that the construction cost of the Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR project will be Rs 49,000 crore, with rolling stock costing another Rs 6,800 crore?the total bill being estimated as Rs 55,800 crore. It pegs the average construction cost per kilometre of double track line at between Rs 76-84 crore, depending on alignment options. It suggests a PPP between the railways and private sector for the project to raise the required capital, smooth implementation and ensuring social benefits. Further project viability could come through government support in the form of a grant or budgetary support to the tune of around 17% of the total project cost and soft loan to the extent of 11% of the total project cost, sourced from multilateral agencies. The proposed concession period for the PPP transaction is 40 years. The economic internal rate of return of the Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR corridor has been worked out at 12.8%, which is above the cut-off criterion rate of return of 12% for economic viability.

A project of this magnitude is likely to follow the familiar script in India and go through hurdles beginning with questions about why it is needed to who will build it and how it will be funded. Other than questions of viability, there will be the vexing land acquisition issues and conflicts over environmental issues. As per plan, the first such train will pass the ecologically sensitive ghat sections from Lonavala to Khandala and Karjat between Pune and Mumbai; plans about how HSR trains will travel through the rest of the country have yet to be detailed. There is also the spectre of cost escalations and project delays, which would mean that the actual price could be much more than the current estimate.

Remember, a similar drama played out while the Mumbai-Pune Expressway was mooted, debated and finally built. Today, expressways are the only way forward. Nobody debates their relevance any more. But the railways will have to go down this track to help reach its logical destination.

There will be a real estate component to the Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR project, especially when it come to locating stations and intermediate stops. The RITES-SYSTRA-Italferr report underlines that the state governments shall have to play a crucial role in making the required land available to the railway ministry at the identified locations, with development at these locations adding to the profitability of the HSR project. With Prithviraj Chavan as CM of Maharashtra and Narendra Modi as Gujarat CM, both interested in driving ahead the development agenda, there could be no better candidates for seizing the HSR opportunity. If the Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad project takes off, it would signal the beginning of a new wave of rail transport across India.