As Europe battles to overcome its worst economic crisis in decades, it is falling back on what most had feared: restricting immigration, and South Asia will bear the brunt of the restrictive policies.
The British Prime Minister David Cameron?s recent comments on immigration have reignited the controversy on the virtues of foreign workers in economies where they are in sizeable proportions. Britain is one of the best examples. During the last decade, more than 2 million people moved to Britain, many of whom were from South Asia. More than 30% of London?s current population of 7.7 million comprises people born abroad, with half of the births in the city being accounted for by foreign-born mothers. The rest of Britain has a generous sprinkling of foreign and South Asian immigrants. The latter are not only in low-skilled occupations but are visible in high-productivity growth-oriented functions as well, though in lesser numbers. There are also South Asian students adding to the host country?s workforce. Indeed, in Britain, Australia and the US, South Asians are seen attending colleges, driving taxis and carrying out storekeeping functions, as much as they are found teaching and researching in top universities, and managing high-powered corporate responsibilities. South Asian immigrants have been contributing productively to both the lower and higher ends of the supply chains.
Cameron plans to bring down immigration from ?hundreds of thousands? to ?tens of thousands? by being selective about its quality. The issue is politically volatile and there have been contrasting reactions to his comments. Business groups and the Liberal Democrat segment of the government have come down heavily on his posture. These sections argue that Britain?s economic progress will be difficult to maintain without immigrants. On the other hand, anti-immigrant lobbies, particularly from the Cameron?s own party, have been quick to support his views.
The political resistance to immigration in the West works on the assumption that gaps created by curbing inflows of foreign labour will be filled up by domestic workers. The assumption overlooks the fact that the average Briton or American is usually unwilling to do jobs that South Asian workers perform in their countries. The generous and comprehensive social security systems in these countries have created incentives against working, particularly in jobs that are typically ?blue collar?. Thus while, politically, the anti-immigration agenda propagates the notion that foreign workers are snatching ?local? jobs, the reality is quite different. For both Cameron and the US President Barack Obama, who has also been trying to moderate foreign labour inflows, getting domestic workers to fill up the labour market gaps will be a huge challenge. There is little evidence of this happening as of now.
The ire against foreign workers is not unexpected at a time when economic stagnation is refusing to withdraw from Europe and America. For political parties desperately seeking solutions to economic recovery and retention of political authority, immigration is an easy refuge. Political authorities in the West appear to be willing to forego the earlier generations? emphasis on developing multi-cultural and multi-ethnic nation states in favour of a narrower brand of state-building favouring greater domestic participation.
The split between political and business communities in the West on immigration indicates that governments will face considerable difficulties in pushing anti-foreign labour measures. Cameron?s proposals have upset British businesses, as much as Obama?s H1B visa fee hikes had upset their American counterparts. These groups are aware of the importance of foreign labour in helping them recover lost ground in global business. Much as British and American firms would not want to let go of South Asian labour, the French, Belgian and Spanish firms would not want to give up on Algerian, Moroccan and African labourers.
For South Asian labourers though, migration choices and opportunities in the short term are likely to become restricted. This is not particularly good news. For labour-surplus economies from the region, economic growth is yet to reach the level where jobs can move to people; people have to continue moving to jobs. The focus of outward migration from the region is expected to change as western policies become more inward-looking. Migration options might reduce further as the Middle East, another major destination for South Asian migrants, also gets embroiled in political difficulties and assumes tighter immigration policies.
The possibility of outward migration from South Asia reducing seems distinct unless two things happen. The first, of course, is an economic recovery in the West, which, as of now, seems remote, at least over the next few years. The second is a radical change in production structures within certain parts of Asia encouraging greater migration from South Asia. The latter, however, is again a tentative possibility and is unlikely to materialise immediately.
The author is a visiting senior research fellow in the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore. These are his personal views