Even as bankers continue to recast loans in the hope of recovering their money, a larger share of such assets is turning toxic. While slippages of restructured loans into non-performing assets (NPAs) was not uncommon in the last few years, the number of failures is starting to outnumber the successes.
Between April and October 2013, the number of accounts that exited the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) cell because the companies concerned were unable to turn around the business was twice the number that were successful in reviving the business. The trend is disconcerting given that the bulk of restructuring — R3.25 lakh crore at the end of September 2013 — has taken place in the last couple of years. An assessment by Macquarie Research shows 45 companies exited the CDR cell successfully between April and October last year while 90 were compelled to go after failing to comply with the terms.
Going by the current trend, it would appear that the slippage of 25-30% pencilled in by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is realistic although bankers say one in every five loans recast is turning bad. Sectors such as steel, textile, infrastructure, construction and the hotel industry are examples where the default rate is high, bankers said.
The working group headed by B Mahapatra, executive director, RBI, which reviewed the guidelines on restructuring of advances estimated that 25-30% of restructured loans may slip into NPA category. “This assumption was based on the fact that restructurings have taken place only in the recent past with long moratorium and repayment holidays and the repayment behaviour of such borrowers is still not known,” the committee observed.
The majority of slippages over the past year are the result of companies failing to meet interest and principal repayments. In the October-December quarter, two companies with loans of Rs 1,500 crore exited the CDR successfully while the accounts of 12 firms with borrowings of Rs 4,100 crore needed to be pulled out.
A look at the data over a longer time frame suggests that increasing failures appear to be a more recent trend. Numbers from the CDR cell show