Stating that Indian economy is likely to see a mild recovery in FY18, Crisil on Thursday said that it expects the GDP growth to rise to 7.4%, up 30bps in FY18. “Pent-up consumption demand is likely to support growth post demonetisation,” it added. Earlier this month, the official data released showed that demonetization hasn’t pushed the economy into a retreat as most feared, with its short-term adverse impact to a large extent restricted to construction and financial services. Real GDP growth in the December quarter, in the midst of which the note ban came into effect, came in at a respectable 7% (though lower than 7.4% in the previous quarter) and the gross value added (GVA) was 6.6%, with the difference explained by robust indirect taxes and reining in of subsidies.
Meanwhile, Global rating agency Fitch on Tuesday raised the forecast for India’s GDP growth in the current financial year 2016-17 to 7.1% from 6.9% earlier, after the government’s official data showed there was hardly any impact on the economy from demonetization of high-value currency notes. However, Fitch warned of possible revisions to official GDP data later on, as it said that the initial impact of demonetization on the economy may be underestimated.
You may also like to watch:
“Fitch now expects Indian GDP to grow by 7.1% for FY16-17, before picking up to 7.7% in both FY17-18 and FY18-19,” Fitch Ratings said. Earlier in November, Fitch had cut the forecast for India’s current financial year GDP growth to 6.9% from 7.4% citing the impact of demonetization, which left the nation under a severe cash crunch with 86% of the currency pulled out of circulation all of a sudden.
“According to official statistics, GDP was hardly hit in 4Q16 by the cash crunch, after the government’s move to pull 86% of currency in circulation out of the economy overnight,” Fitch said in a note.