Japan could lose between $500 million and $1.2 billion in Chinese visitor spending by the end of the year as travellers cancel trips following Beijing’s advisories warning citizens against visiting the country, according to travel data firm China Trading Desk, cited by Bloomberg.
Around 30% of the 1.44 million trips planned by Chinese tourists to Japan through December have already been cancelled, with near-term departures accounting for nearly 70% of the drop. Fresh bookings have also stalled, signalling a sharp reversal after earlier momentum, China Trading Desk told Bloomberg.
The cancellations come after China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a travel warning on November 14, followed by advisories from the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on November 16, a move that has triggered intense debate and calls for broader boycotts on Chinese social platforms, according to Business Times.
China’s biggest source of visitors now turning away
Tourism is one of Japan’s most vulnerable sectors in the current standoff. Chinese travellers account for roughly one in four foreign visitors annually and contributed around 27% of inbound tourism consumption between July and September, based on Japanese government data cited by Bloomberg.
On average, Chinese tourists spend about ¥240,000 per trip, with luxury shopping forming a significant portion of this outflow. China Trading Desk estimates that luxury purchases alone could decline by as much as $600 million this year as travel slows.
Prior to the warning, bookings from China were running 25% ahead of last year’s levels. They have now slipped below 2024 figures, with routes from Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou to Tokyo and Osaka taking the biggest hit.
Tensions spill into tourism sentiment
The downturn is linked to heightened diplomatic friction following remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan, which prompted a strong counter-response from Beijing, including heightened rhetoric and public advisories, Business Times reported.
On Chinese social media, some users called for a complete boycott of Japan, including its tourism, products and joint-venture cars. While not all citizens share that sentiment, the warnings have created a chilling effect on travel decisions. Travel agencies have already scrapped group tours, and airlines, including Chinese carriers and Cathay Pacific, have waived cancellation fees, accelerating the drop in departures.
Travellers pivot to other Asian destinations
As Japan bookings fall, neighbouring destinations are emerging as replacement options. Singapore and South Korea have recorded booking increases of up to 15%, while Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are seeing potential growth of around 11% week-on-week, according to China Trading Desk, as reported by Bloomberg.
While January bookings remain stable for now, analysts warn that continued diplomatic strain could significantly deepen the damage. If Chinese visitors continue staying away into 2026, the cumulative impact on Japan’s tourism economy could rise to $9 billion, China Trading Desk estimates. Despite the geopolitical tensions, people-to-people exchanges have not completely collapsed. Japanese film releases and cultural exports continue to see strong performance in China, indicating that the fallout remains primarily concentrated in the travel and tourism segment, Business Times noted.