By Azhar Shaik
The poor man’s satellite offers a cheap mechanism for geospatial intelligence.
Since the spotting of an Air balloon above 60,000 feet over Montana, tensions have eroded between both countries as the US is holding its silo-based nuclear missiles at Malmstrom Air force base in Montana. After the Pentagon sources confirmed it was a Spy balloon from China and decided against shooting it down for safety reasons, with immediate escalations, the Chinese Daily said the spy balloon claims were a lie. “To spy on the US with a balloon, one must fall far behind to use 1940s technology and be advanced enough to control its flight across the ocean. Those fabricating the lie are only exposing their ignorance”.
Nevertheless, Chinese claims for its metrological purpose, which interestingly have steering capability with around 34 cubic metre size carrying sensors and surveillance equipment capable of manoeuvring and changing its course, don’t look like a mere failure of its trajectory course from the Chinese end. However, the US claims to violate its airspace, and the Biden administration has ordered a shootdown. The balloon was shot down using US most advanced fighter aircraft F-22 Raptor with an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile, clearly showing the US message to Chinese air violations. Meanwhile, the Pentagon claimed it shot down a second “high-altitude object” above Alaska on Friday but provided no other details. Another “unidentified object” shot down over Canada’s Yukon region over the weekend.
Geospatial intelligence through Surveillance balloons
Geospatial intelligence concerns human activity on and beneath the earth, including rivers. It is primarily concerned with military exploitation and mostly with troops’ movements, missiles deployed etc. it also covers civilian buildings, people migrations (such as the movement of refugees and migrants), and natural resources. Geospatial intelligence uses data collected by satellites, drones, high-altitude planes, and even balloons. Spy balloons may capture not just photographs and signals but also chemical analysis of the air. They aren’t widespread since this strategy lacks plausible deniability because (as we’ve seen) balloons are easily noticed and shot down. On the other side, they have a low radar signature, are inexpensive, and may appear innocuous.
It is now deliberate that the Balloon which China claims to be accidentally entered is not merely collecting meteorological data. Its claim of malfunction due to force majeure doesn’t satisfy the US as, according to a Scientific American investigation, the balloon looked to have a significant amount of agility, particularly when it appeared to linger above important US defence sites in Montana, if the balloon has been self-contained, it would have been entirely contingent on wind patterns.
Jim Himes, a member of the House intelligence committee, told the Guardian that balloons have potential advantages when it comes to intelligence gathering. He mentioned three things: Firstly, Balloons don’t cost billions of dollars, and satellites do; secondly, they have persistent surveillance capabilities that satellites don’t; thirdly, the closer, the more accurate the information is.
Indeed “The poor man’s Satellite offers a cheap mechanism for Geospatial Intelligence.” compared to other segments of Intelligence collection, Air Balloons offer comparatively a cheap layer of information collection as there is a vacuum of space laws exits.
Air Violation and the question of Sovereign air space
Every country has total and exclusive control over the airspace above its boundaries. The Chicago Convention states that each state has complete and exclusive control over the airspace above its borders. That is undeniably true. National sovereignty cannot be transferred. However, functional activities, such as providing air navigation services, can be delegated. A delegation of service delivery is, in reality, an act of sovereignty. International law does not apply to the distance at which satellites operate, which has long been seen as coming under the purview of space law.
However, the higher limit of sovereign airspace is a point of contention in international law. In actuality, it typically extends to the maximum height at which commercial and military aircraft can fly, which is around 45,000 feet (about 13.7 km). The supersonic Concorde jet, on the other hand, flew at 60,000 feet (over 18 km). The Chinese balloon was likewise said to be flying at the height of 60,000 feet.
Surprisingly, the upper limit of the airspace is undetermined in international law. International legal frameworks, such as the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, enable permission to be requested to enter a country’s airspace. The International Civil Aviation Organization has established additional airspace access restrictions, including those for hot air balloons, although it does not oversee military activities.
Given these unambiguous international regulations, the US’s response to the Chinese balloon was fully legitimate. The United States would have to grant authorization for airspace, which was probably not done.
Interestingly the area between 20 and 100 kilometres above sea level is too high for an aircraft to fly in and too low for satellites to orbit in, but new technology is starting to make cautious inroads with the help of balloons, solar-powered “wings,” and drones, which is still an important development to notice. A framework needed to be developed for these types of incursions, and proper action other than using military power should be used; though, in the case of the US and China, a proper diplomatic channel has failed to achieve any outcomes; it has only increased and hyped the issue between them.
Nevertheless, the Chinese have been attempting to spy by all means possible. One of the contexts is the Chinese Yuan Wang 5 spy ship with several tracking and surveillance devices has entered the Indian Ocean region ahead of India’s long-range ballistic missile known as Agni five. However, India managed to reschedule its test with growing Chinese surveillance and successfully conducted it after that. The other spotted incident was a Chinese incursion in Japanese territorial waters at the time of the Trilateral Malabar naval exercise between India, Japan and the US, eventually spotted by Japanese patrol aircraft known as P-3C spotted it to the west of Kuchinoerabu Island and the spotting of Chinese warship in 2018 which followed Indian warships, respectively in 2013 near the Andaman Islands, and the list goes on.
Chinese agencies with advanced techniques and usage of different hardware and software have continuously monitored their peers. Whether it is the United States or India, China, through different techniques and cyberattacks, has made its presence in the age of Information warfare, it is quite noted that these grey zone activities are largely carried out in South Asia, particularly in India.
Conclusion
This big game of Spy Balloon became a great controversy for US-China ties, particularly in domestic politics; this incursion has seen more like the Sputnik launch over the US during the Cold war era. The hype and attention have been gained, paving the way for further deteriorating ties between both countries as Blinken has also cancelled his visit to China amid political pressure on Biden’s government. The visit would have improved relations between both countries.
In between Chinese have also warned of retaliatory action that could take place anytime. One such news is already reported, as orders are being issued to avoid the risk of fishing boats near Rizhao, a northern port city; authorities have issued a warning stating that it can be shot down at any time, as done by the US, these came to light as People’s liberation army week-long military exercise in the Bohai strait, which connects the northern part of the yellow sea.
However, the use of espionage in various forms as a fundamental aspect of Chinese geopolitical policy is widely documented. As China advances in technology, its alignment with the state’s interests becomes closer. China’s ‘Made in China 2025,’ Space and Technology Goals through 2050, and even Beijing’s 13th Five Year Plan all aim to employ technology for military goals. As China strives to exploit its technical superiority to threaten the world’s rules-based international order, the boundaries between information control, industrial policy, economic and political coercion, and foreign policy become increasingly muddled. China is determined to use all means necessary to seize control of the international system.
The author is a Research Intern Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) and Masters’ Student in Politics and International relations at Pondicherry University, India.
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