By Juan Manuel Harán
The deadline for political parties in Argentina to present their pre-candidates to participate in the primary elections to be held on August 13 was June 24. The previous days were full of comings and goings, dances of names, rumors, fights, unexpected associations and crossed friendly fire. Now, the candidates are already defined and with a particularity: the main contenders are market-friendly.
Argentina has a three-tier electoral system. The first is the open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries (PASO, for its abbreviation in Spanish) where each political coalition will decide its official candidate in front of the general electorate. In the second instance, called “general elections”, to be held on October 22, the winning candidates of the primaries of their respective coalitions compete. The candidate who reaches 45% of the votes or 40% with at least 10 points of difference with the second is consecrated president. Finally, in the event that no candidate obtains those votes, the last electoral instance is a ballotage between the two most voted candidates of the general elections.
The Argentine electoral system incorporated the PASO in 2009, so that citizens could also participate in the election of candidates of each list that reaches the general elections. The political parties or fronts may present one or more lists for this instance, which sets a threshold of 1.5% of the total valid votes. The parties or fronts that do not exceed this amount will not be able to participate in the general elections.
The August 13 elections will see a competition divided among three lists of similar electoral power, plus a fourth one that appears as an unknown promise and other candidates of lesser representativeness.
On the side of the current ruling party (Peronist, center-left), neither Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (current vice-president, former president between 2007 and 2015 and leader of the space) nor the current president, Alberto Fernádez , will be candidates.
The election of Massa as candidate deserves two appreciations. First, there is a shift away from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is betting on maintaining representation in both legislative chambers and in her stronghold of the Province of Buenos Aires, where she supports the reelection of the current Governor Axel Kicillof, a person she closely trusts. Specialists point out that seeing a high possibility of defeat, the Vice-President decided to deliberately run away from the presidential list so as not to be the captain of the defeat, as she had already been, for example, in 2015.
Secondly, Unión por la Patria, which represents a progressive or center-left sector, is leaning towards a candidate with known links to local and international businessmen and whose political origin is in a right-wing party. The reason may be due to a certain shift of the Argentinean electorate towards more orthodox ideas in a context of very high inflation or to the electoral competitiveness of the Minister of Economy, a politician who has shown audacity and persistence on his way to power.
Within Unión por la Patria, the leader of social movements close to Pope Francis, Juan Grabois, who has very little chance of success, will also participate in the PASO, so that the official candidacy of Sergio Massa and Agustín Rossi for October is almost a fact.
The main opposition in Argentina is the space known as Juntos por el Cambio (center-right), founded by the party of former President Mauricio Macri (PRO) in alliance with the centenary Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) and other minor parties, which already managed to defeat Peronism in 2015 (under the name Cambiemos). There will be two main candidates seeking to prevail in what is expected to be a very tight race. Unlike what is happening in Unión por la Patria, Juntos por el Cambio has an internal contest with no clear tendency yet. The polls, of doubtful certainty, so far show a hard-fought result.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, current Mayor of the City of Buenos Aires, seemed to be the natural successor of Mauricio Macri, but internal conflicts have caused them to drift apart. Rodríguez Larreta will be a pre-candidate for president, with the governor of the province of Jujuy, Gerardo Morales (UCR), as vice-president. Rodríguez Larreta presents two main assets in his fight for the presidency: his management as mayor of the Argentine capital and his vocation to lower the levels of political confrontation.
In front of him will be the multifaceted Patricia Bullrich, former Minister of Security during the government of Mauricio Macri, with a youthful militancy within the leftist Peronism, she was national deputy for spaces of all ideological arc, and even Minister of Labor in the failed government of Fernando de la Rúa, at the beginning of the century. Bullrich managed to obtain the political, economic and media support from Mauricio Macri, as well as from other PRO referents, to establish herself as the pre-candidate that seeks to defeat Rodríguez Larreta. She will be accompanied by another UCR, the former deputy of the province of Mendoza, Luis Petri. Her speech is based on the ideas of order and intransigence.
The most probable outcome is that from amongst these three lists the next Argentine president will appear: Massa, Rodríguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich, with favoritism for whoever manages to win in the internal elections of Juntos por el Cambio. The particularity is that the three candidates most likely to be elected to the Casa Rosada (Argentina’s Government House) are in favor of a more business-friendly economy than both the current government and those of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Thus, Argentinean assets are expected to continue their upward trend in the Buenos Aires stock market, with the expectation of a government that will put an end to almost two decades of high state interventionism.
Now, there is a recent political space in Argentina that has been gaining momentum, mostly in social networks and media, which is La Libertad Avanza led by libertarian and outsider Javier Milei. With a discourse similar to that of Trump and Bolsonaro, this economist has aroused the interest of young people fed up with the economic situation in Argentina and the traditional political framework.
Today it is too early to say which will be its future in the elections: in some polls Javier Milei appears in an eventual second place in the general elections (leaving Unión por la Patria in third place). Others do not believe in the strength of the libertarian party, due to its lack of support from the major parties in Argentina. In fact, since 1983 only candidates from one of the two major parties or in alliance with them have been president. Without the Partido Peronista or the Unión Cívica Radical, it is not possible to be president in Argentina (for now).
Within dissident Peronism there is another list promoted by the governor of Córdoba province, Juan Schiaretti, in alliance with the former Minister of Transportation of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Florencio Randazzo. Schiaretti was proposed to integrate Juntos por el Cambio by Rodríguez Larreta, but was not accepted by the other members of the coalition. Therefore, it would not be surprising if they support Rodríguez Larreta in case he wins in the internal elections or even in a future government, for now they can subtract votes from him by competing for a similar electoral segment.
The left wing will also participate in the elections with two different factions. One of them is the minority space Nuevo Mas, with Manuela Castañeira and Lucas Ruiz as candidates. The most relevant is the Frente de Izquierda which will present two lists of pre-candidates. On one side, Myriam Bregman and Nicolás del Caño (both national deputies), on the other side Gabriel Solano and Vilma Ripoll.
In addition, there are other spaces that will present lists, which will have as a great challenge to overcome the threshold of votes, among them are dissident Peronists such as the former Secretary of Commerce of Cristina Fernández, Guillermo Moreno (Principios y Valores), nationalist leftists such as Jesús Escobar (Libres del Sur) or extreme right-wingers such as César Biondini.
The cards are on the table in Argentina. Multilateral lending agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, should look favorably on the definitions of candidacies. Everything indicates that the next leader in Argentina will be someone who, beyond the differences, will fulfill his economic obligations advocating a pro-market profile.
The economic challenges will be very significant for whoever succeeds Alberto Fernández, while the transition between governments also presents economic and political complexities that will test the new president’s ability to exercise power.
The future may be promising if the macroeconomy can be put on track and problems that have been dragging on for decades can be corrected. Agriculture, mining, the oil & gas sector and knowledge-based services can be the export structure that will underpin growth in the coming years.
A first electoral campaign will now take place in which there will be several wounded and a few strengthened candidates who will be able to compete for national leadership. August 13 is not far away, but in Argentina everything can change.
The author is Argentinian Journalist & Entrepreneur specializing in Asia – LATAM relations. And CoFounder of ReporteAsia.com .
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