By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
Ursula Von Der Leyen, the European Commission President’s declaration to shift energy supplies away from Russia creates opportunities for African countries. For instance, Africa’s natural gas could reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Several African countries could benefit from Europe’s energy diversification, including Senegal, Nigeria, and Tanzania, with Europe as the key financier, according to Brookings.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected Africa. Despite the geographical distance, Africa and Ukraine have maintained important connections of diaspora and trade. Ukraine, for instance, attracted more than 8000 Moroccans and 4000 Nigerians students, and exported to Africa goods worth $4b annually. At the same time, a few countries are sensing opportunities in the shift away from Russia.
Besides natural gas, sanctions on Russia benefit other natural resource exporters such as South Africa which is, after Russia, the world’s largest producer of palladium-a critical input into automobiles and electronics. Similarly, as a major exporter of gold, South Africa has seen its currency Rand strengthen because of rising global prices of the precious metal.
Despite these possibilities, in the immediate term, the war in Ukraine has resulted in hardships for African households resulting from food insecurity. Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports and a protracted war in eastern Ukraine where the fertilized lands are, have led to a serious global food crunch. The rise in the cost of Russian exports has led to a rise in food costs. The rising price of oil has affected the cost of transport. The rising energy costs have also affected the cost of production of chemical fertilizer, which is often subsidized to raise food production in Africa riddled by low natural soil fertility. The export bans by China and Russia have led to high costs of urea and phosphate which in addition to nitrogen, are key ingredients in the production of fertilizer. Continued rise in price of fertilizer further reduces the already narrow fiscal space many African governments have experienced in the wake of Covid 19.
The war has, therefore, cut Africa from two major sources of grain. According to the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO), 14 African states depend on Russia and Ukraine for half their wheat, with Eritrea (100%), Somalia (over 90%) and Egypt (nearly 75%) topping the list. Overall, wheat imports make up 90% of Africa’s $4b trade with Russia and almost 50% of its $4b trade with Ukraine, according to the African Development Bank. Growing food crisis will destabilize the continent.
When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, wheat prices increased by 25% over two months. Due to the current geopolitical tensions, all major wheat exporters reported higher prices. Rising food prices have generated social media anger in countries such as Kenya. Russia had already replaced Australia as a major wheat exporter to Sudan. In a country where politics are deeply intertwined with the price of bread, high costs of wheat have fueled civilian anger. In Ethiopia, changing diets have meant that wheat constitutes 14% of the country’s total calorie intake and 25% of local demand. After Russia, Ukraine is the largest source of wheat. The war has exacerbated already higher levels of food insecurity.
The world has experienced a surge in prices of a wide range of commodities, sending inflation soaring even as nations suffer from two years of pandemic. This poses a threat throughout the developing world, but especially in Africa, which is experiencing roll back of democratic governments and a resurgence in military coups.
While most attention has focused on the implications of the Ukraine crisis for transatlantic relations and NATO unity, the war has also tested pan-African solidarity and regionalism. The solidarity in the African Union (AU) and sub regional groupings such as ECOWAS, EAS, SADCC, has been undermined by conflicting views over how to handle the spate of coups in the Sahel and rising insurgency across the continent. In Burkina Faso, Central African Republic (CAR), Guinea, and Mali, large scale protests have featured people waving Russian flag and military leaders inviting Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group to tackle jihadists.
The AU, no doubt, supports inviolability of borders and has condemned Russia’s invasion and called for an immediate ceasefire. Kenya and Ghana envoys to the UN echoed these sentiments. But, more generally, the conflict has put many African leaders in a difficult position. South Africa’s neutrality had for weeks frustrated EU and Ukrainian diplomats who nonetheless recognize a special role with Russia via BRICS. South Africa later took a stronger stand calling for Russia to withdraw. Nigeria only noted the invasion but neither condemned it nor called for cessation of hostilities.
It appears barely more than half of African states voted for the March 2, 2022, UN Resolution condemning the invasion; 17 abstained, eight chose not to vote at all. Eritrea voted against. Despite lobbying by the West, many have climbed on the fence; 33 either abstained or didn’t vote in an April 7 Resolution to suspend Russia from the UNHRC. The reluctance to censure Russia ranges from the historic to the pragmatic. The colonial past, and the memories of Russia’s support for newly independent African states in the 60s and 70s evoke sympathy for Moscow.
Economic relations play a role too. Though no longer a significant contributor of development aid for Africa, and only a minor source of investment, Russia over time has become a major supplier of food, and an increasing provider of military assistance. But these ties now put Africa in a bind. The war is also drawing world attention to Ukraine, making it all but impossible for African nations to get the additional assistance as more civil unrest is predicted.
Ironically, according to experts, the growing unrest because of Russia’s actions elsewhere, will lead to demand for Russia’s services of a different kind-the munitions and manpower provided by Russia would be required to deal with political dissent and a restive population at home. References have been made to the mercenaries of the Wagner Group, a private army from Russia run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. They are said to have for several years fought for Libyan rebel General Khalifa Haftar and propped up the governments in CAR, and more recently in Mozambique, Sudan, Madagascar, and Mali (and active in Syria).
According to analysts, the withdrawal of French forces from the fight against jihadists in the Sahel-south of Sahara-represents more opportunities for Prigozhin, especially since many of these countries are run by military juntas. The war represents both a short-term challenge and long-term opportunity for Wagner, it has dispatched fighters from Africa to Ukraine, but will also be able to recruit from the ranks of battle-hardened Russian soldiers.
Be that as it may, a long-drawn war in Ukraine, as it appears to be, will exacerbate global hunger, given that both Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of foodstuff, contributing 30% of total global wheat exports. Global hunger is a lever of global instability. In Africa and the Middle East populations seemingly distant from Ukraine might find themselves in a political crisis generated by the knock-on effect of the war and interrupting dreams of an elegant exit from Covid 19 pandemic.
As the war drags on, sanctions will pile up and prices for commodities such as oil will continue to rise. The economic effects will be felt across the world. Support for Ukraine may therefore wear thin the longer the war continues. Voices demanding that Ukraine should accept a ceasefire at any cost could become louder. Other conflicts such as the war in Syria that has long faded from view, demonstrate that a never-ending war can become a nuisance to comfortable societies.
Discrepancies in the international response to the conflict have already begun to emerge. Many countries see a double standard in the West’s enthusiastic reception to Ukrainian refugees and in the punishment of Russia for a war when the US has fought several such wars in recent years. Only 37 countries have levied sanctions on Russia, while 141 have condemned the invasion at the UN, a discrepancy that shows that not all members see eye to eye on the war.
More broadly, African governments have shown growing interest in building relationships with both the east and west to diversify trade, investment, and aid options. The key issue is how Africa will maintain relationships with their diverse set of external partners-and with one another-as the geopolitical context dramatically shifts.
(The author is a former Indian ambassador and former Joint Secretary, Africa in the Ministry of External Affairs. She tweets:@nchauhanifs Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).