India’s crude imports from Russia have remained strong this month but fresh loadings of oil cargo — that will land in the country in the coming weeks — have plunged ahead of the November 21 deadline for the US sanctions to take effect.
On Thursday, Reliance Industries said it had halted the use of Russian crude at its export-only refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, to comply with sanctions.
Reliance has been India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, taking in nearly half of all imports. Russian oil imports by India in the current month stood at 1.89 million barrels per day, even higher than in October (1.61 million barrels), according to data and analytics firm Kpler, as refiners prioritised the most economical barrels ahead of the sanctions deadline.
However, fresh loadings headed for India from Russia declined sharply by 47% to 982,000 barrels per day this month from 1.86 million barrels in October. This indicates the flows are set to decline noticeably in the near term, particularly through December-January. Any cargo after November 21 from Rosneft or Lukoil would carry significantly higher sanctions risk, analysts at Kpler noted.
What did Sumit Ritolia say?
“Based on current understanding, no Indian refiner other than Nayara’s already-sanctioned Vadinar facility is likely to take the risk of dealing with OFAC-designated entities, and buyers will need time to reconfigure contracts, routing, ownership structures, and payment channels,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler.
Reliance’s comment on the halt
With crude linked to Rosneft and Lukoil now effectively treated as a “sanctioned molecule”, Indian refiners (aside from Nayara) are expected to pause direct purchases after November 21. In a statement, a Reliance spokesperson said, “We have stopped importing Russian crude oil into our SEZ refinery with effect from November 20.” Reliance supplies oil to Europe and other markets from its SEZ refinery in Jamnagar. “From December 1, all product exports from the SEZ refinery will be obtained from non-Russian crude oil,” the firm said.
Last month, when the US sanctioned Russia’s largest oil exporters – Rosneft and Lukoil, the firm had stated that it would meet all applicable restrictions and would adjust its refinery operations to meet compliance requirements. Additionally, the European Union has barred the import of fuel made from Russian crude, starting January 2026.
“We have noted the recent restrictions announced by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States on crude oil imports from Russia and export of refined products to Europe. Reliance is currently assessing the implications, including the new compliance requirements,” Reliance had said on October 24.
As per Kpler data, loadings have already slowed since October 21, though it is still early for definitive conclusions given Russia’s agility in deploying intermediaries, shadow fleets, and workaround financing. “Refiners will likely proceed more cautiously, relying on unsanctioned traders, blended barrels, and more complex logistics to minimise OFAC exposure. Russian supply will not disappear but will increasingly move through opaque channels,” Kpler said.
Recent tanker activity suggests a notable shift in Russian crude trading behaviour, marked by mid-voyage diversions between India and China and ship-to-ship transfers at unusual locations such as off Mumbai’s coast, far from the typical transfer zones near the Singapore Strait. These developments reflect evolving logistical tactics by Russian exporters.
Russian crude loadings to India are tracking at around 982,000 barrels per day as of November 20 (lowest since October 2022), sharply down from the 1.75 million average seen over January-September 2025.
The decline is driven primarily by OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US) sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the two largest Russian suppliers to Indian refiners. While volumes may still shift, as some in-transit vessels could revise their final destinations, the trend shows India-bound flows are softening. Importantly, there’s been a noticeable uptick in undisclosed cargoes leaving Russian ports, Kpler noted. Many of these tankers had previously been discharged in India, indicating a potential continuation of flows via less transparent channels.
“However, diversions to other Asian buyers cannot be ruled out. For now, November buying remains fluid, but the drop in declared India-bound volumes aligns with expectations as refiners move cautiously ahead of the November 21 OFAC wind-down deadline,” Ritolia said. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are actively diversifying supply, increasing intake from West Asia (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE), Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (US, Canada) to offset lower Russian volumes.
Freight costs on long-haul routes will cap substitution potential, but the overall import basket is likely to widen, Kpler notes.
India does receive Russian crude from suppliers other than Rosneft and Lukoil, and those flows remain legal for now. This means that crude supplied by non-designated Russian entities — for example Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, or independent traders using non-sanctioned intermediaries — can still be legally purchased by Indian refiners, as long as no sanctioned entity, vessel, bank, or service provider is involved.
Kpler, however, highlighted that in the longer term, the trajectory will depend on how strictly Western nations enforce secondary sanctions and whether further measures — such as sanctioning all Russian barrels or penalising refineries that process any Russian crude — are introduced. “Tighter enforcement would suppress volumes further, while lighter-touch implementation could allow some recovery through intermediaries,” said Ritolia. Overall, Russian crude flows are entering a phase of heightened uncertainty and volatility as the supply chain adapts.