Wheat production is projected at a record 115.3 million tonne (MT) during 2024-25 crop year (July-June), an increase of 2% over the previous year, according to the second advance estimate of major crops released by the agriculture ministry on Monday.
The government’s estimate of wheat output allays fear about the impact of above normal temperature prevailing on crop yield on the rabi crops especially wheat, chana and mustard. Inflation in wheat was 8.8% in January, 2025 on year while it has been in single digit since August, 2023.
Recently the wheat processing industry had estimated wheat output in the current year at 110 MT against 105-106 MT in the previous year.
Officials said that harvesting of wheat in several states including Maharashtra, Gujarat and Bihar have commenced. Arrivals of wheat in mandi in key growing states – Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh would commence by the end of the current month.
The agriculture ministry stated that the rabi crop production is based on the average yield and are subject to change in the successive estimates on the receipt of better yield estimates based on crop cutting experiments.
Wheat sowing this season has increased to 32 million hectare (Mha) against 31.56 Mha last year and higher than the average sown area of the last five year.
The food ministry has estimated wheat procurement by agencies at 31 MT for the rabi marketing season (April-June) for 2025-26, which is 26% higher than actual purchase of 26.6 MT in 2024-25 marketing season.
At present, Food Corporation of India (FCI) has 13.55 MT of wheat stock against the buffer of 7.46 MT for April 1. According to industry estimates, the wheat stock is likely to be in the range of 10 – 11 MT at the beginning of the next fiscal year which would be barely above the buffer.
Under the government’s market intervention initiative of offloading surplus stock in the market, the FCI has sold 3 MT of wheat to bulk buyers such as flour millers in the current fiscal aimed at curbing prices.
In terms of kharif output, the agriculture ministry has projected a record rice (120.67 MT), maize (24.81 MT), groundnut (10.42 MT) and soybean (15.13 MT) for the 2024-25 crop year.
Last year, the government set a target of a record foodgrain (rice, wheat, pulses and millets) production of 341.55 MT in the 2024-25 crop year, which is an increase of around 3% of 332.2 MT in 2023-24 crop year.
“In the third advance estimated likely to be released in May, the production of various summer crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds will be included,” according to an agriculture ministry note.
While preparing the kharif crop production estimates the crop cutting experiments based yield has been considered. “The crop area received from the states have been validated and triangulated with information received from remote sensing, weekly crop weather watch group and other agencies,” according to an official note.