Monsoon deficit in June was a wide 32%, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, even as it added that conditions were “very likely to become favourable” for its further advance into many remaining parts of the country during the next 72 hours. As the rain deficit in June dragged kharif sowing by a significant 9% from a year ago, farmers expect a revival in July could make up for some of the losses.
A good spell of rainfall during the first half of this month may improve the sowing activities further, particularly of pulses and soyabean in central India and the cotton belt of Vidarbha. However, given the huge deficit last month and a below-normal prediction for July by both the IMD and private forecaster Skymet, even if sowing improves, there is a chance of lower yield as the planting window for many crops in the major growing regions gets over by the third week of July, analysts said.
“Another monsoon surge is expected until July 15 from now on with a short break in between. This would increase rainfall over Odisha, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, northern parts of Telangana, south and south-west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, south Rajasthan and Gujarat,” said Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet.
He said farmers in central India have been advised to sow crops if not yet sown. Proper drainage should be maintained in the farms in case of medium to heavy rains to avoid water logging as it may damage the standing crops. They are also advised to use herbicides at this point of time as it will be more effective in controlling herbs and weeds, he added.
According to IMD, the actual monsoon showers were 112.1 mm during June against the long period average (LPA) of 166.9mm for the month. It had predicted 95% of LPA of for this month while Skymet’s forecast was 91%.