With rains remaining weak so far, it may have an impact on the food inflation, as well as the contribution of agriculture to the economy, a rating agency said. So, it’s important to closely monitor monsoon patterns going ahead, CARE Ratings said. “A slow progress in monsoon along with storage levels of reservoirs remaining below the 10 year average during June’19 could affect the sowing patterns and in turn the crop production in the country,” it added.
The south-west monsoon has been sluggish so far in June with the 31 meteorological sub-divisions receiving deficient rainfall. The shortfall has been the highest in the last six years. The central and western region have received scanty rainfall so far.
The rains in the fourth-month long monsoon season hold key for India’s farm economy largely dependent on rainfall for irrigation. Nearly 55 per cent of the country’s arable land is rain-fed, and agriculture makes up about 15 per cent of a $2.5 trillion economy that is Asia’s third-biggest.
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While India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts average rainfall going ahead this year, the private forecaster Skymet has predicted below-normal monsoon.
Water level
The live storage level in the 91 reservoirs pan-India as on 27 June was 26 BCM, recording a contraction of 11.7 per cent as against the corresponding period of the previous year, the rating agency said. “The current live storage level of the reservoirs is at 16.2% of the full\ storage level. The current reservoir level is considerably lower than the 10-year average live storage, which is 19% (of FRL)”, CARE Ratings also said said.
In the week ended on June 26, the country received 24 per cent less monsoon rains as against the 50-year average.