Russian Indian relations have long stood the test of time. Moscow has repeatedly supported New Delhi on the international stage, using its influence to protect Indian interests. After the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, India refused to join the anti-Russian sanctions, confirmed its readiness to continue the dialogue and called for respect for the territorial integrity of all states. Russia, in turn, views India as a rising power, an integral part of the emerging multipolar world order and one of its priority partners. India’s economic and political importance for the Russian Federation has further increased after the escalation of the conflict over Ukraine and the deepening crisis in relations between Russia and the West. The Russian leadership highly values New Delhi’s independent and balanced position in the current circumstances, as well as the country’s consistent efforts to facilitate the search for a mutually acceptable settlement to the crisis. Indian culture, philosophy and art have long attracted the Russian intelligentsia, and this interest is virtually independent of the political and economic situation. The positive attitude of Russians towards India is stable, which creates a solid foundation for cooperation between the two countries. Moscow and New Delhi also hold similar views on most key issues on the international agenda. The relations between the two countries are not characterized by mutual fears, mistrust and suspicion, which are often present in relations between great powers. Russia and India have maintained stable defense and trade ties in the new conditions, but the future of the relationship is a concern for both sides. Sceptics say that the partnership is losing its previous momentum. Although bilateral trade has grown significantly over the past two years, experts express doubts about the sustainability of this trend. Military-technical cooperation has also slowed down due to the growing presence of Western companies in the Indian defense market. There are still disagreements on issues such as India’s participation in QSD (Quad Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) or QUAD (Quad group of nations) and the development of the situation in Afghanistan.
The West’s sanctions against Russia have led to Beijing already occupying the “niches” vacated by Western business and increasing trade volumes with the Russian Federation to record levels. It is in New Delhi’s interests to actively use the mutually beneficial opportunities that are opening up for developing trade and economic relations with Moscow. By drawing New Delhi into bloc structures under the auspices of Washington, the Anglo-Saxons are actively forming strategic mechanisms for pressuring India, which will not allow it, along with China, to become an independent center of power capable of competing with the West in the political, economic and technological spheres.
Recently, the interests of both countries have intersected in Central Asia. First of all, the parties are concerned about the situation in the field of regional security, in particular the problems of terrorism and extremism. To overcome them, Moscow and New Delhi are striving to strengthen cooperation with the Central Asian countries within the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), and also support similar efforts by other states. To a certain extent, Russia and India have similar economic advantages when interacting with the Central Asian countries, since they can offer them joint projects within the framework of development assistance with the involvement of both private and public capital. Such initiatives are of particular importance, since the region is beginning to implement large-scale national modernization programs at a qualitatively new level, which in the coming years will lead to an increase in demand for investments, technologies, best corporate practices, personnel training programs, etc. It is important for both parties to maintain energy cooperation with Central Asia. The countries intend to deepen existing export-import ties with the region and are interested in developing new energy projects: Moscow seeks to avoid serious competition with regional hydrocarbon exporters on world markets, while New Delhi is making efforts to diversify energy supplies from the Middle East. India supports initiatives to develop connectivity between Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, including through the development of the North-South International Transport Corridor, reducing trade barriers and deepening regional integration. While this project is also significant for Russia, Moscow is interested in developing the region’s transport and logistics infrastructure also within the framework of the conjugation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the OBOR (One Belt One Road). It can be said that both Russia and India are in favor of the openness of Central Asia and against any attempts by third parties to take dominant positions in the region.
Another important area of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi is Afghanistan. The parties have extensive experience of interaction with Kabul and are concerned about the challenges and threats that instability in this state poses to them and neighboring countries. Neither Russia nor India has yet developed a stable assessment of the current situation in Afghanistan, which makes it difficult to predict its likely future. Moscow and New Delhi believe that there must be appropriate grounds for diplomatic recognition of the new political regime. Only after the establishment of official relations will it be possible to send international humanitarian aid to the country and gradually involve it in multilateral development projects. According to the Russian and Indian parties, Kabul’s participation is necessary to resolve many economic problems and security challenges in Eurasia. Middle East (West Asia). Although neither Russia nor India borders the Middle East, many regional events have an impact on the domestic political agenda of the countries, directly or indirectly. Moscow and New Delhi’s attention to the region is a derivative of their respective strategic interests and foreign policy goals. Despite differences in tactics of interaction, at the strategic level both countries recognize the importance of this space for the global oil market, geopolitical stability and international economic cooperation. Russia seeks to secure its status as an important external player in the Middle East. The country maintains friendly relations with Iran, Syria, Egypt, tries to establish contacts with the Gulf states and maintains ties with both Israel and Palestine. Currently, Russia faces many challenges in implementing these tasks against the backdrop of growing political polarization in the region, especially after the start of military escalation in Gaza in the fall of 2023. Shortly before these events, India initiated the creation of a new economic corridor linking it with Europe via the Middle East, which is sometimes seen as an alternative to the OBOR. Some other regional initiatives, such as Quad-2, uniting India, Israel, the UAE and the United States, raise concerns in Russia, where they are interpreted as a clear example of the growing US presence in the western Indian Ocean. Russia is concerned about the growth of extremism and terrorism in the Middle East and promotes the idea of creating a regional collective security system. Its formation can be carried out in several stages, starting with the implementation of confidence-building measures at sea between Iran and the Arab states. Moscow participates in diplomatic processes aimed at resolving conflicts and stabilizing the situation in the region, and supports efforts to combat the identified threats of extremism and terrorism. India also cooperates with the Gulf countries in the joint search for solutions to regional problems. The country emphasizes strict adherence to the principle of non-interference and seeks to maintain friendly relations with various forces in the region. One of the main tasks of New Delhi in developing cooperation with the Gulf countries is to maintain its own energy security. India is a major importer of oil and gas from this region and seeks to ensure stable supplies of hydrocarbons to meet the needs of a rapidly growing economy. The growth rate of demand for energy resources in India is one of the highest in the world and is covered to a large extent by purchasing oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) from Russia on favorable terms for India. To strengthen New Delhi’s independence and autonomy, it is important to create a payment system independent of Western sanctions and to continue to increase the volume of national currencies in mutual settlements, including for energy resources.
In turn, Russia, as the largest energy exporter, is interested in maintaining cooperation with the Persian Gulf countries to regulate the global energy market and stabilize oil prices. In addition to the agreements concluded within the OPEC+ framework, the Russian Federation has reached additional agreements in the energy sector with key Middle Eastern states. Russia is also interested in diversifying economic ties with the region, including cooperation in transport and logistics, food, and defense, as well as in attracting investment from the Gulf countries. In general, the comparative advantages of Russia and India in the Middle East complement each other, which opens up many opportunities for joint work on projects in the field of regional development and security, for example, on the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In recent years, Russia and India have been actively increasing their interaction with Africa. The continent is one of the most dynamically developing regions of the world with enormous demographic, resource and economic potential. At the same time, African countries face a wide range of problems that could have negative consequences for many international processes if not addressed.
Russia seeks to partially restore the previous level of partnership with Africa, characteristic of the Cold War period, within the framework of current diplomatic initiatives and military cooperation projects. Africa’s rich natural resources, including minerals and energy, can help Russia support its own economic development and stimulate hydrocarbon exports. For this reason, Russia is interested in many infrastructure projects in Africa, in particular in such sectors as energy, transport and telecommunications. Initiatives such as the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum help draw attention to the continent’s main economic problems. Russia also hopes that its African partners will not support Western efforts to isolate the country on the international stage. In turn, India seeks to strengthen economic ties with African states through trade, investment and development cooperation. The country views Africa as a potential market for its goods and services and seeks to diversify its list of natural resource exporters. India is increasingly interested in African energy resources, particularly oil and gas fields. Access to them will reduce risks in energy supplies and dependence on Middle Eastern suppliers. India also participates in development assistance projects in Africa aimed at building the capacity of countries in the region – in implementing scholarship programs, providing technical support and assistance in the field of health. This strategy helps to strengthen the country’s “soft power” and political position in the region. The interests of Russia and India in Africa reflect their more global foreign policy goals and a desire to strengthen their influence in a region with significant economic potential. Given the limited competition between Indian and Russian companies in African countries, closer cooperation at the state level would be beneficial to both sides.
The author is an independent military analyst.
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