By Patricio Giusto

2025 begins with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) undergoing significant expansion, having fully integrated four new members in 2024: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

The status of Saudi Arabia remains uncertain, as the country has put its membership on hold. Meanwhile, several rising regional powers have expressed interest in joining the group, including Türkiye, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. It is worth noting that Argentina declined the invitation it had previously accepted, following Javier Milei’s presidential inauguration in 2023.

Although BRICS+ remains a relatively diffuse cooperative space marked by internal contradictions and divergent agendas—exemplified by the paradigm of China and India—it is impossible to overlook the bloc’s growing significance in the current international context.

BRICS+ already represents 47% of the world’s population and 41% of global GDP. Should the countries on the waiting list—led by Türkiye and most ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members—join, the group would comfortably surpass the 50% threshold in both indicators. Furthermore, at least eight additional countries have shown varying levels of interest in joining.

At the heart of the debate lies the question of whether BRICS+ can establish itself as a new center of power representing the “Global South” (a term itself contested and ambiguous), positioning itself as a counterweight to the G7. It is worth mentioning that the G7 also faces internal contradictions and conflicting interests among some of its members, a dynamic mirrored in defense issues within NATO.

Undoubtedly, the rise of BRICS+ is tied to strategic interests and complementary agendas among its primary members. However, the highly fragmented international landscape, shaped by the rivalry between China and the United States, has played a decisive role in driving this development.

When Jim O’Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs, coined the term “BRIC” in 2001, his intention was merely to identify the four emerging economies (excluding South Africa) that market projections suggested would dominate global economic growth by 2050. Over time, this label gained geopolitical weight and institutional significance, culminating in the current phase of membership expansion and an increasingly diverse agenda that now includes topics such as international security and the reform of the financial system.

Despite undeniable internal contradictions among its members, each power within BRICS has successfully leveraged its individual interests while maintaining the integrity of the bloc. So far, this dynamic has worked effectively, but the future remains uncertain, particularly with the inclusion of disruptive players like Iran.

BRICS+ is now preparing for a new summit in Brazil, following the successful gathering held in Russia in October of the previous year. Many Western politicians and analysts, constrained by ideological blinders, had prematurely predicted the failure of that summit due to Vladimir Putin’s supposed “isolation.” Contrary to these expectations, 36 heads of state attended the Kazan meeting, along with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Key questions loom over the future of BRICS+:

Can BRICS+ solidify its expansion and position itself as a new global power center, rivaling the U.S. and its key allies? Early indications suggest that countries like India and Brazil may not fully support such positioning.

Will BRICS+ achieve membership numbers comparable to the Non-Aligned Movement (which still formally exists with approximately 120 members)? A major challenge may lie in the leadership of this rising bloc, currently dominated by China, the leading emerging superpower and BRICS’ main proponent.

Does expansion strengthen or weaken BRICS+? Critics and skeptics argue that the bloc risks losing cohesion due to its diversity. However, considering the bloc’s evolution and the strong motivations driven by the current global context, there are compelling arguments to suggest otherwise.

Donald Trump, ahead of his potential second term, has already criticized BRICS. Expressing anger (and perhaps concern) over the bloc’s possible promotion of an alternative to the U.S. dollar, Trump warned of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations should they undermine the dollar. As BRICS+ continues its trajectory, it is evident that its growing global influence can no longer be ignored or underestimated.

The author is Director of the Sino-Argentine Observatory. Lecturer in the Specialization on Contemporary China at UCA. Master of China Studies and visiting professor at Zhejiang University (China).

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