The Titan share price closed September 29 session with nearly 3% gains but over the last 1 month, the stock has fallen nearly 6%. While investors are cautious given the high gold rates, international brokerage house Nomura is bullish on the stock. They have initiated coverage on this Tata Group stocks with a Buy recommendation and a target price of Rs 4,275, implying roughly 268t percent upside from current levels.
Nomura on Titan Company: Q2 weakness cyclical
Nomura argued the weakness in Q2 is largely cyclical and concentrated. The brokerage pointed to three immediate drivers of the slowdown:
- A sharp (>40 per cent) uptick in gold prices during the quarter that dampened footfalls;
- A high year-ago base created by the customs duty cut in July 2024;
- Calendar-specific buying patterns around the Shradh period in September, traditionally considered inauspicious for jewellery purchases.
Taken together, these factors explain nominal softness, Nomura says, but do not alter the medium-term thesis.
What’s driving the bullish stance?
At the heart of Nomura’s positive stance is a structural story. India’s growing affluent and elite segment is expected to expand demand at multiples of GDP growth, and Titan through brands such as Tanishq, Mia, Zoya and CaratLane stands to capture much of that upgrade. The broker forecasts sales and EBIT CAGRs of 18–19 per cent for FY26–28, arguing that incremental share gains from informal to organised retail, along with higher revenue per store and improved product mix (notably a greater contribution from wedding jewellery), will drive earnings recovery. Titan’s wedding segment currently accounts for roughly 20 per cent of jewellery sales; Nomura models that rising to 25 per cent–30 per cent over the medium term, which materially improves store economics and margins.
Nomura also cited Titan’s international push. The company plans to scale Tanishq stores overseas, targeting ~50 international Tanishq stores from 22 at present and is integrating the acquisition of Damas Jewellery to accelerate access to the Gulf and diaspora markets locations that typically yield higher revenue per outlet than domestic stores. The brokerage sees the Damas deal as a strategic lever for margin expansion if integration succeeds.
Nomura on Titan Company
The brokerage firm has set the target price of Titan Company shares at Rs 4,275. This is valuing Titan at 60 times its expected earnings for September 2027. On September 29 Titan’s share price closed in green at Rs 3,417.00, so hitting the target would mean a gain of about 25%. But this upside depends on Titan actually delivering the strong profit growth Nomura is forecasting about 24% per year between FY26 and FY28. If the company falls short, the valuation may look too high.
Risks to watch out for
Nomura lists clear risks. First, adoption of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) could further pressurise demand for higher-margin natural diamond solitaires an area where Titan has historically earned premium returns.
Second, increasing organised competition regional players raising fresh capital and expanding store footprints could compress market share and margins in contested markets.
Third, a sustained spike in gold prices could lengthen the period of weak footfalls and compress volumes. Nomura recognises these threats but concludes that many are already reflected in current prices.
Between FY23 and FY25, Titan’s sales grew by around 22% a year, but its EBITDA rose by only about 13% a year, showing that margins were under pressure. At the same time, in FY25, swings in inventory and working capital led to negative operating cash flow and a big rise in working capital needs, which could hurt liquidity if the trend continues. These are short-term execution challenges investors should watch closely.
What should investors watch next
Investors tracking Titan Company share price should focus on a short list of observable milestones that will either validate or undermine Nomura’s thesis:
- Q3–Q4 revenue and margin trajectory (festive and wedding season impact).
- Inventory and working-capital trends reported in the next quarterly filings.
- Early results from Damas integration and international store roll-outs, in particular revenue per international store and margin contribution.
- Earnings revisions by sell-side consensus that either ratify Nomura’s EPS ramp or trim expectations.