By V K Sharma
The Nifty rose 1.64% last week to close at 25,910, marking gains in all five trading sessions. The sharp upmove came despite the bomb blast in Delhi on November 10, the first act of terror outside Kashmir since May 2014. While the new profile of the terrorists surprised the nation, it failed to deter the markets from closing with solid gains.
If we consider weekly closings, last week’s close of 25,910 was the second-highest ever for the Nifty. The highest close of 26,178 was recorded in the week ended June 27, 2024. Going forward, immediate resistance is seen at 26,104 — the last swing high registered on October 23 — and then at the all-time high of 26,277 hit on September 27, 2024. Once that level is crossed, the benchmark could target 26,600.
Last week, the market built on the reversal seen on November 7 and rose sharply on the 12th, creating a gap of 71 points between the high of 25,715 on the 11th and the low of 25,781 on the 12th. On Friday, it opened lower, slipped to 25,740, and then rebounded 200 points, partially filling the gap. This gap between 25,740 and 25,715 will now act as the first support.
Looking back at the fortnight gone by, the Nifty initially consolidated, gradually drifting lower until it breached trendline No. 74 on November 7 in intraday trade. However, it executed a swift rebound to close above the trendline, validating and further strengthening it.
While the massive NDA victory in Bihar appears largely discounted — as results and trends were known before markets closed on Friday — what remains underpriced is the renewed confidence with which the NDA will approach the upcoming five assembly elections, especially in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal in March 2026. The alliance has little to lose and much to gain in these states.
The unfortunate and cowardly terrorist attack in Delhi, along with revelations about a new breed of terror operatives, is expected to make citizens more security-conscious while further empowering enforcement agencies. “Expect appropriate action on quislings and the countries they support,” a senior official said.
Meanwhile, although the US government shutdown has ended, the latest Fed commentary has not been supportive of a rate cut in December. Moreover, September 15 marked the end of the results season. With that uncertainty out of the way, volatility may ease, and mid- and small-cap stocks could start catching up.
(The writer is a technical analyst & former head of clients’ group, HDFC Securities)