Indian rupee is expected to depreciate today amid stronger dollar. Additionally, investors will keep an eye on Industrial production data from India. “US$INR (March) is expected to rise towards 76.90,” said ICICI Direct. The rupee appreciated by 20 paise against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by positive domestic equities and trends in state election results. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 76.27 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 76.07 and a low of 76.46 before settling at 76.42, registering a rise of 20 paise over its previous close.
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee rose in the first half of the session but gains were capped in the latter half of the session following an uptick in the dollar against its major crosses. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of the important ECB policy statement that was released yesterday. The ECB will stop pumping money this year and has opened doors even for a rate hike as soaring inflation outweighs concerns about the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, focus will be on the consumer sentiment number from the US and that could trigger further volatility for the dollar. From the UK, GDP and industrial production number will be keenly eyed to gauge a view for the pound that has been under pressure in the past few sessions.”
Rupee likely to trade on choppy amid mixed global cues: Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities
“The Indian rupee likely to trade on choppy amid mixed global cues as U.S. inflation hit almost 8%, making it almost certain the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, and the European Central Bank sped up the end of its massive stimulus program. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 2% on the U.S. inflation report for the first time in two weeks indicating strength in dollar for future also Threat for further fill outflows. On domestic front, foreign institutional investors (FII) haven’t shown confident in last trading session were we have optimistic sentiments and news indicating further weakness for rupee.”
“Dollar rupee has knock all time high near 77.33 future levels which will going to act as resistance zone for now sustain above the same may witness sharp rally towards 78 marks. On down side USDINR has support placed around 76.00-76.04 zone. As per current scenario we are expecting USDINR to trade in range of 76.00 to 77.30 future levels. Considering overall scenario we recommend to hold Dollar Rupee trade by keeping stop loss below 76.00 for upside potential target of 76.80 levels (all near month future levels).”
Rupee still not out of the woods: Kotak Securities
USDINR March futures closed 24 paise lower at 76.54, on the back of long liquidations. A sharp drop in Brent crude oil prices towards $110, followed by a strong performance of BJP in state elections, helped lift sentiments. This caused drop in USDINR. However, by the time trading day concluded, USDINR recovered and closed near the high point of the day. A rebound in oil prices made that happen. Indian Rupee is still not out of the woods as oil prices remain elevated amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As long as USDINR holds above 76.00 on spot, upward bias remains. Resistance is near 76.50 and 77.00 on spot.