The rollover percentage in Nifty futures October series fell to 76% from an average 81% for the past three series, a report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research said on Wednesday. It was 82.6% in September, while the six-month average stood at 79.4%.
It noted that at the start of November series, meaningful open interest addition is seen in sectors like telecom, IT, and infrastructure. According to Nuvama, November has historically been a strong month for Indian equities, with the Nifty delivering an average gain of 1.6% over the past decade, though with a more modest 50% hit rate.
The Nifty Bank has shown a greater momentum, averaging 3.5% gains with an impressive 80% hit rate, a trend that could extend the banking sector’s strong performance witnessed in October. Nuvama noted with the Nifty trading near all-time highs, some moderation is likely in the benchmark’s performance.
Nuvama sees more compelling opportunities in broader market indices and noted Nifty Next 50 sits approximately 12% below its peak, while Nifty Smallcap remains about 6% off its highs. The Nifty Midcap has already reclaimed the all-time high territory.
It said: “From a technical perspective, this setup favours a broadening of market participation beyond frontline stocks. Investors may find better risk-reward opportunities in select mid- and small-cap names, particularly those that have lagged the recent rally despite strong fundamentals. Overall, the Nifty should ideally be rangebound in our view.”