Adani Power is back in focus. The brokerage firm Jefferies in its latest report has maintained a bullish stance on this Adani group stock. The brokerage firm has maintained a “Buy” rating with a target price of Rs 690. This indicates an 18% upside from current levels.
The bullish stance by the brokerage firm is primarily driven by the factors such as the growth, improving risk metrics, and better visibility on receivables.
Let’s take a look at the key reasons why the brokerage has a positive outlook in Adani Power–
Jefferies on Adani Power: Capacity building spree
As per the brokerage report, the company has been on a consistent expansion of its capacity. Its total capacity grew 29% over FY23–25, reaching 17.6 GW, and the company has set an ambitious target of 30 GW by FY30.
According to the brokerage report, “11.2 GW of equipment has already been ordered at competitive rates with BHEL, and over 3 GW is expected to be operational by the first half of FY28.”
Jefferies on Adani Power: Receivable clarity from Bangladesh
Adani Power’s power purchase agreement (PPA) with Bangladesh, which accounts for 1.6 GW or 9% of its capacity, had been under scrutiny due to delayed payments amid political instability. However, that concern has started to ease.
As per the report, Bangladesh cleared USD 384 million of dues in June 2025, reducing Adani Power’s outstanding receivables. Jefferies highlighted that this “eases investor concerns on the same,” and improves visibility on future cash flows.
Jefferies on Adani Power: Reducing earnings volatility
The brokerage further in its report noted the company’s strategy to limit exposure to merchant markets. The report added, “APL’s earnings volatility should reduce as merchant capacity drops closer to 10-12% by FY30E vs 18% by FY25. Interestingly, despite capacity moving up nearly 2x, APL’s net d:e will reduce to 0.6x by FY30E from current 0.7x given operational cash flow generation.”
Jefferies scenario-based valuation
Jefferies has mapped out three possible growth trajectories for Adani Power. This include –
Base case
In Jefferies base scenario, Adani Power’s installed capacity is expected to reach 30.7 GW by FY30, with merchant realisations estimated at Rs 6.1 per unit. Jefferies report forecasts a 20% revenue CAGR and a 14% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-30. This values the company at 15x EV/EBITDA on FY27 earnings. Furthermore, it translates into a fair value target of Rs 690, implying an 18% upside from current levels.
Upside case
As per the brokerage report, the company’s capacity remains unchanged at 30.7 GW by FY30. Meanwhile, the revenue and EBITDA CAGRs are expected to improve to 21% and 16% respectively. Maintaining the same 15x valuation multiple, Jefferies in its report noted that this scenario supports a higher target of Rs 765. This indicates a 31% potential upside.
Downside case
In the bearish case, Jefferies assumes a slower demand environment. While the capacity outlook is unchanged, revenue and EBITDA growth are projected to slow to 19% and 11% respectively. Applying a lower 12x EV/EBITDA multiple, the target price drops to Rs 365. This signals to a possible 38% downside risk.