Jefferies has turned upbeat on JSW Energy after a strong September quarter, maintaining a Buy rating and setting a target price of Rs 700 per share. This implies an upside of nearly 30% from the current market level.
The brokerage said JSW Energy’s consistent operational performance, expanding capacity, and disciplined financial management makes its FY26 capacity target of 15 GW firmly within reach. “The company’s strong execution and rising renewable contribution continue to reinforce long-term growth visibility,” Jefferies wrote in its latest note.
JSW Energy share price closed in red, down by 1.4% at Rs 540 level on October 17.
Jefferies on JSW Energy: 15 GW capacity goal within sight
Jefferies’ report titled “Strong Qtr; FY26E 15 GW Capacity Target on Track” said JSW Energy’s September quarter performance exceeded expectations, with EBITDA coming in 9% higher than estimates. The beat was driven by better utilisation at both its 1.8 GW KSK Mahanadi thermal asset and 1.8 GW of O2 Renewable Energy (RE) capacity.
As of September 2025, JSW Energy’s total installed capacity stood at 13.2 GW, up 72% year-on-year (YoY), placing the company among India’s fastest-growing power producers. Jefferies said the company’s execution pace remains robust despite sector-wide supply-chain issues, with several renewable and hybrid projects slated for commissioning by FY26.
“The FY26 capacity target of 15 GW remains well within reach,” Jefferies noted, adding that operational integration across its acquired assets has been smooth and margin-accretive.
Jefferies on JSW Energy: Capacity growth drives earnings beat
Jefferies attributed the strong financial performance to timely project execution and improved utilisation. It projects revenue of Rs 1.94 lakh crore in FY26 and EBITDA of Rs 1.10 lakh crore, translating to an EBITDA CAGR of 42% between FY25 and FY28.
Net profit is expected to rise to Rs 27,071 crore, implying an earnings-per-share (EPS) CAGR of 23% over FY25–FY28. “This quarter marks one of JSW Energy’s strongest operational phases in recent years,” Jefferies said. It highlighted that the ramp-up in newly added assets and stable tariff realisations have driven margin expansion.
Jefferies on renewable pivot: 75% green capacity by FY30
Jefferies noted that JSW Energy’s renewable strategy remains central to its growth story. The company plans to increase its renewable energy (RE) share from 48% currently to 75% by FY30, supported by large-scale solar, wind, and hybrid additions through its subsidiary JSW Neo Energy.
By 2030, JSW Energy is targeting 30 GW of total installed capacity, although Jefferies forecasts a realistic 24.7 GW, considering project timelines and approvals. “The company’s clean-energy transition is progressing faster than expected and aligns closely with India’s decarbonisation goals,” the brokerage said.
Thermal assets still provide base-load strength
While renewables are the growth driver, Jefferies said JSW Energy’s thermal assets remain critical for base-load stability and steady cash flow. The integration of the 1.8 GW KSK Mahanadi plant has strengthened generation reliability and contributed to the quarter’s EBITDA outperformance.
Jefferies expects the thermal segment to remain stable through FY30, supported by long-term offtake arrangements and consistent plant load factors. “Thermal will continue to underpin cash flows even as renewables take the lead,” it said.
FY26 a key milestone
Jefferies said FY26 will be an important year for JSW Energy as multiple solar and hybrid projects come online, pushing capacity close to 15 GW. The brokerage expects return on equity (ROE) to rise to 13% by FY27 and return on assets (ROA) to reach around 4%, reflecting higher profitability once new assets start generating power.
According to the report, JSW Energy is now moving from an expansion-heavy phase to a phase of stable earnings growth. “FY26 will mark the transition from capacity accumulation to steady profitability,” Jefferies added.
Jefferies on JSW Energy: Investor view and outlook
At around Rs 540 per share, JSW Energy trades at about 11 times its estimated FY27 EV/EBITDA, which Jefferies sees as attractive given its growth prospects. The brokerage reiterated that JSW Energy remains “one of the most credible long-term compounders” in the Indian power sector.
“The story is not only about adding new capacity,” Jefferies said. “It’s also about steady execution, healthy cash flows, and sustainable growth.”