By Nesil Staney
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs is using Polymarket, an American prediction-based betting platform which transacts via cryptocurrency, as a tool for its analysis on the Iran conflict and the oil price outlook. On June 22, Goldman’s commodities research report said Polymarket prediction sees high chances of Iran disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket is a prediction market where investors place bets using USDC cryptocurrency stablecoin pegged to the US dollar on various future events, including economic indicators, war, weather, sports and political outcomes. US presidential elections turned out the highest betting event on the platform till date, with over $3.3 billion wagered on the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
At present, the highest bet is on ‘who will win the Democratic nomination for New York mayor post’, garnering $42 million. ‘What price will bitcoin hit in June’ has $19-million bets. ‘Will the US officially declare war on Iran’ has $13-million bets and ‘Fed decision in July’ has another $13 million wagered on. ‘A major cyber attack on Iran in June’ has attracted $7 million.
Interestingly, there is a $4-million bet on ‘Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July’ and another $2 million on ‘Israel-Iran ceasefire before July’. Khamenei out as the supreme leader of Iran has $3-million bets. Bets of $5 million have been placed on whether Tesla will launch a driver-less Robotaxi service before July. ‘US recession in 2025’ has $8-million bets piled while ‘US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025’ has $2 million.
Bets placed by investors trigger a chance prediction. ‘Major cyber attack on Iran in June’ has 99% chance, while ‘Israel-Iran ceasefire before July’ has 96% chance. ‘Another US military action against Iran by June 30’ has 16% chance, according to Polymarket bets.
Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping before July is chanced at 1% while such a meeting before August has 13% probability. ‘Will India lift Indus Water Treaty suspension before July’ has 1% chance, while ‘Shehbaz Sherif’s dismissal in 2025’ has 9% chance.
Polymarket has blocked access to US customers since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives trading platform.