The revival of monsoon augurs well for the cotton crop in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra as well as the rest of the country. Industry experts maintain that the country is heading for a bumper cotton crop at around 400 lakh bales with nearly 120 lakh hectares coming under cotton cultivation.
Dr KR Kranthi, director, Central Institute of Cotton Research ( CICR), says except for some spots such as Telangana and Mahbubnagar,the crop is so good across the country. “The rains have returned and according to the IMD will continue till the first week of October which is very good. Except for parts of north interior Karnataka and Telangana, the rains have been good in Central Maharashtra as well. In fact, Vidarbha is heading for a very good crop something that does not happen every year. So far, the rainfall pattern has been good in this region. Normally around 16 lakh hectares in the region comes under the crop, yielding an output of 30-32 lakh bales. This time it could be in the region of 37-38 lakh bales,” he explained.
Ironically, some 32 farmer suicides have been reported in Marathwada region in the first week of September alone.
Responding to this, Dr Kranthi says a good crop can stall an agrarian crisis for farmers since the market prices are not so good. “Higher yields can force stress on the market. China has not importing and therefore the exports are down. Even if the overall crop is good, for some farmers even a two- to-three day delay in planting crops could lead to stunted growth and this is paradoxical leading to such deaths,” he explained.
Cotton prices are currently low at R4,000 per quintal and in July the stocks were around 183 lakh bales. Even if the domestic consumption is around 250 lakh bales there is still a surplus, he said.
Until September 3, sowing operations were completed on some 114.5 lakh hectares and planting is expected on some 5 lakh hectares by the end of September, taking the total 119-120 lakh hectares, he pointed out.
Among the 84-odd cotton growing nations, Indian productivity is at 32nd place. This has been the case for the last 10 years, Kranthi pointed out, adding that yet India is the world’s highest cotton producer. This year, after China stopped imports, there has been a glut of cotton in the Indian market with a carryforward stock of some 138-148 lakh bales.
Cotton Corporation of India is selling its stock of 25 lakh bales and expects to cut inventory to 5 lakh bales before September-end, the close of cotton year 2014-15, even as it gears up for new season.
The Cotton Association of India in its first estimates of the crop for the 2015-16 season beginning on October 1 says output could touch 380 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This is almost similar to the output of 382 lakh bales achieved in the 2014-15 season. The association says the acreage under cotton during the ensuing 2015-16 cotton season is going to be less than that of the current crop year. Yield is, however, likely to be higher during the 2015-16 season due to good and timely rainfall in the cotton growing areas.