Global brokerage Bernstein has started coverage on Swiggy and Eternal (earlier known as Zomato). It has assigned ‘Outperform’ rating on both, indicating the expanding opportunities in India’s Rs 6.7 lakh crore convenience economy.
The report pointed to rising adoption of quick commerce and food delivery platforms, as Swiggy and Eternal consolidate leadership across two of India’s fastest-growing digital consumption categories.
Bernstein rates Swiggy and Eternal ‘Outperform’
The brokerage said both platforms were now central to India’s emerging consumer story, with roughly 20–25 million daily active users each. Bernstein noted that Swiggy’s Instamart has improved its store economics after recent funding and strategic adjustments, while Eternal benefits from a strong cash position and scale through Zomato and Blinkit.
The report added that both players have reached a meaningful penetration level in urban markets, allowing them to expand into adjacent services like dining, events, and B2B logistics. Bernstein described both stocks as “structural beneficiaries” of India’s shift towards convenience-led consumption.
The brokerage said that the Swiggy stock price has declined 24% year-to-date, and the correction has created an attractive entry point for investors who believed Instamart would narrow its profitability gap with competitors. It said Swiggy generated about Rs 955 crore ($115 million) annually in cash from food delivery.
Bernstein expects Instamart to scale to roughly 65% of Blinkit’s gross order value by FY30 and reach about 30% of Blinkit’s adjusted EBITDA by then, a trajectory that the analysts said could trigger a re-rating over the next six quarters.
Bernstein on India’s quick-commerce and food-delivery race
Bernstein’s recomemenation comes at a stage when competition between Swiggy, Blinkit, and Zepto has accelerated significantly. The brokerage pointed out that quick commerce is evolving into a scale-based business, not purely driven by network effects, and projected the segment could reach $35 billion by FY30.
While Blinkit has emerged as the current market leader, Swiggy’s Instamart and Zepto remain strong challengers. The report said profit pools in quick commerce would be broader than food delivery, with early movers gaining a structural advantage through operational efficiency and dark-store optimisation.
Bernstein on Swiggy: Instamart likely to be profitable by FY27
Bernstein expects Instamart to scale its gross order value to roughly 65% of Blinkit’s by FY30, achieving about 30% of its adjusted EBITDA. Analysts described this as a clear profitability glide path, driven by larger store formats, private-label offerings, and disciplined store expansion.
The brokerage also cited Swiggy’s recent qualified institutional placement (QIP) and its Rapido stake sale as steps that could extend its cash runway while investments in logistics and technology continue. Bernstein expects Instamart will follow a profitability glide path and said the recently announced qualified institutional placement and the Rapido stake sale should extend Swiggy’s cash runway while the company invested for scale. The brokerage said free cash flow at Swiggy was likely to remain negative through FY27 as investments continued.
Bernstein on Eternal: Strengthens leadership as Zomato growth steadies
Eternal, which owns Zomato and Blinkit, remained a dominant force in India’s food delivery and quick commerce markets. Bernstein said Blinkit’s turnaround and expanding profitability have strengthened Eternal’s overall position, while Zomato’s core food delivery arm continues to act as the cash engine, generating nearly Rs 1,875 crore ($225 million) annually.
The brokerage noted that food delivery growth has moderated to below 20% as urban demand stabilises, but Eternal’s diversification into dining and events under its new vertical District could sustain engagement among higher-income consumers.
India’s Rs 6.7 lakh crore convenience economy expands fast
According to Bernstein, India’s serviceable market for food delivery, quick commerce, dining, and events could rise fivefold to about Rs 6.7 lakh crore ($80 billion) by FY30. The core demand, it said, would come from around 70 million affluent, digitally active urban Indians those “money-rich and time-poor” users driving the digital consumption boom.
This cohort’s willingness to pay for convenience and time-saving services represents a durable long-term growth driver, the brokerage added, positioning both Swiggy and Eternal at the centre of this consumption wave.
Bernstein on Eternal: Eyeing dominance in food delivery
The Bernstein report said Eternal recorded over Rs 16,600 crore in cash as per the brokerage and that its share price had risen about 15% year-to-date. It said Eternal’s food delivery arm continued to act as the cash engine, generating about Rs 1,875 crore ($225 million) annually.
According to Bernstein, food delivery growth had fallen below 20% as the channel-shift phase, when dine-in demand moved online, had largely completed in major cities. It said this slowdown was structural and added that the generic availability of GLP-1 appetite-suppressant drugs expected in mid-2026 could act as an incremental headwind for order frequency among higher-income consumers.
The brokerage said Blinkit had emerged as the market leader in quick commerce and that Eternal’s cash pile, cited as $2 billion-plus, gave it the liquidity to reinvest and to develop new verticals such as District for dining and events. It said Blinkit was expected to turn free cash flow positive only by FY27.
Bernstein on Food delivery market dynamics
The Bernstein report puts the spotlight on the growing delivery market dynamics. Food delivery now accounts for around 13% of India’s total food services market and for a much higher share within organized, higher-AOV segments. It said growth had converged with organized food services and that mid-teens volume growth would require product and delivery innovation.
The brokerage said advertising and private labels would become important margin levers, citing global peers where ad revenues accounted for 5–7% of gross merchandise value. It said both Eternal and Swiggy were building ad monetisation and private-label strategies to stabilise take rates.
Quick commerce changed India’s urban supply chain
Bernstein said its supply-side analysis indicated India could sustain about 8,500 dark stores across some 3,800 pincodes, mostly in metro and Tier-1 cities. It said quick commerce was likely to dominate the top 40 cities, while modern trade and long-haul e-commerce would expand in other city tiers.
The brokerage said success hinged on supply-side factors store location, labour, and capital, rather than pure demand alone, giving early movers with operational rigour a structural advantage. It said this made store economics and fixed-cost absorption key metrics to watch.
Bernstein on Eternal and Swiggy valuations
Bernstein valued Eternal at Rs 390 and Swiggy at Rs 570 for March 2027, implying upside of about 23% and 39% respectively, from the report’s reference prices. The report said Eternal’s market capitalisation stood at roughly $34.5 billion and Swiggy’s at about $11.5 billion on the date shown in its tables.
The brokerage said the next phase for both companies would be less about adding users and more about taking a larger share of each user’s wallet through a mix of quick commerce, dining, events, and B2B services. It said investors should judge progress on unit economics, dark-store economics, and ad monetisation rather than raw GOV expansion alone.
For investors, the question will be which operator converts delivery scale into steady wallet share and durable profits; Bernstein expects both Eternal and Swiggy will play leading roles in that contest.