For much of 2025, ChatGPT appeared untouchable and so much so that it became the default name people associated with generative AI. It became a virtual friend, therapist and the go-to-tool for most people. While it continues to enjoy a major market share, things have started moving beneath the surface.
A new data now shows that Google’s Gemini is changing the balance of power in the AI market. The AI race is no longer about who arrived first; it is about who fits best into daily life.
Why Gemini is taking over?
Just a year ago, Google’s Gemini accounted for only a small fraction of global generative AI web traffic. Today, it commands a far more meaningful presence. According to Similarweb data, Gemini’s share has jumped from 5.4% to 18.2% over the past 12 months, more than tripling in size.
Over the same period, ChatGPT’s dominance has weakened. Its market share has fallen from 87.2% to 68.0%, a huge drop that tells us changing user behaviour rather than a temporary fluctuation. “That is not noise,” says Solid Finance CEO Sam Badawi. “If you believe web behavior reflects user preference at scale, then this is the clearest signal that [Google] is not only in the game, it is winning share.”
Winning by being everywhere
Unlike ChatGPT, which users typically access through a dedicated website or app, Gemini is embedded directly into Google’s ecosystem such as Chrome, Android smartphones, Google Search, and Workspace tools like Docs and Gmail. This placement gives Google a powerful edge, users do not need to seek out AI and it simply appears where they already are.
AI tools that are deeply integrated into everyday workflows are better positioned to capture the flow. When AI shifts from something users experiment with to something they rely on daily, convenience becomes critical. By removing the friction of switching platforms, Google is slowly pulling users away from standalone AI tools.
Still, Gemini’s success also explains that distribution only works when users trust the product. Microsoft’s Copilot offers a useful comparison. Despite being integrated into Windows and the Edge browser, Copilot has failed to build momentum. Its share of generative AI web traffic has slipped slightly from 1.5% to 1.2% over the same period.
The contrast explains that while Copilot has reach, it has not yet earned habitual use. Gemini, on the other hand, appears to be converting Google’s vast user base into recurring engagement, a sign that users are finding enough value to return. In the AI race, being present is one thing. Being preferred is another.
How Gemini is thriving in stock market?
The momentum behind Gemini is also mirrored in Alphabet’s stock performance. Alphabet’s Class C shares have risen 65.59% so far this year and 60.16% over the past 12 months, far outpacing the Nasdaq 100, which has gained 22.31% year-to-date and 17.86% over the year. The rally has been especially strong in recent months, with the stock up 80.97% over the last six months, though it dipped 1.44% in the past month.
Though short-term movements fluctuated, the broader trend tells us that investors are rewarding Alphabet’s long-term AI strategy. ChatGPT remains the largest player in generative AI, but the gap is definitely reducing as per the study. The data shows that leadership in AI is no longer defined by innovation alone, but by integration, trust, and habit formation.
