The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has reported that El Nino is one of the five strongest climate patterns on record. The current El Nino climate is predicted to be impacting the global climate for next coming months despite a weakening trend.
As per the latest update by WMO, it indicates a 60 percent likelihood of El Nino persisting from March to May, with an 80 percent chance of neutral conditions prevailing from April to June.
Above-normal temperatures are anticipated across most land areas between March and May, driven by the ongoing El Nino conditions. These conditions have led to record temperatures and extreme weather events globally, with 2023 marking the warmest year on record.
According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, January saw the global mean temperature surpass the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for the first time for an entire year, as specified in the Paris Agreement. While this breach signifies long-term warming trends, the potential development of La Nina later in the year remains uncertain.
Experts monitoring India’s climate patterns suggest that if La Nina conditions emerge between June and August, it could result in improved monsoon rains compared to 2023.
What is El Nino?
El Nino, characterized by periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically recurs every two to seven years, lasting nine to twelve months.
Its effects include increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and southern US, along with dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
El Nino’s impact on global climate is expected to be most significant in 2024, given its development since June 2023. Though weaker than past events, the current El Nino peaked at approximately 2.0 degrees Celsius above average sea-surface temperatures for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Nino’s influence extends beyond seasonal climate patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events. The WMO underscores the importance of accurate seasonal forecasts during El Nino and La Nina events, aiding decision-making and preparedness efforts across various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and public health.