Winnability or marginalisation? What explains Congress’ decision to contest lowest-ever Lok Sabha seats?

In a first in Lok Sabha elections in the history of independent India, the Indian National Congress will be contesting around 330 seats, its lowest tally in terms of the number of constituencies the party has ever contested in a general election. The Congress, in justifying this unprecedented move, has termed it the same winning strategy that it used to dethrone the National Democratic Alliance from power in 2004. It had then contested 417 seats its lowest count at the time.

“Mark my words, the situation in 2004 was the same as in 2024. We have deliberately opted for fewer seats because we wanted to form a strong alliance and a clear verdict in these elections for the Congress and INDIA bloc,” Jairam Ramesh, Congress’ general secretary in-charge of communications, said.

The decision to contest from fewer seats has apparently also ruffled many feathers within the Congress’ own rank and file. The hard bargain that the Shiv Sena (UBT) drove in Maharashtra was just one such example. Bihar, where Congress is in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal, was another prominent instance where the Congress failed to get seats of its choice. A similar fallout was seen in Uttar Pradesh where the Samajwadi Party cornered a majority of the seats.

More than a strategy, the development reflects its diminishing ‘big brother’ stature within the Opposition. This loss of bargaining power was accentuated following the Congress’ debacle in the Hindi heartland in the Assembly elections held in November-December last year. The Congress, which kept delaying seat-sharing talks despite being publically nudged by INDIA partners, was hopeful of gaining an upper hand on the negotiating table with wins in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

On the contrary, the party’s losses in the heartland left it further marginalised, forcing a shift to a survival strategy to prevent allies from deserting it. The initiation of seat-sharing talks was preceded by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee threatening to walk out of the alliance. As days progressed, Congress was forced to settle for fewer seats in the state.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress’ dilly-dallying resulted in Samajwadi Party unilaterally declaring its candidates’ list for the state only to offer lower seats to Congress days later. A similar strategy was adopted by the Shiv Sena (UBT) in Maharashtra where Congress’ state unit leaders were left fuming after the party agreed to let go of some key seats for its ally. The party’s total count dipped further as it stitched alliances with the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat.

The Congress, however, firmly believes that by ceding space to allies will enhance its chances of a victory against the BJP. The party admits that it is a crucial Lok Sabha election, one that will decide the fate of not just the state of democracy in India but also the position of the Opposition. At the heart of this positioning, however, is a growing realisation within the Congress of its ever-shrinking space and the need to form alliances in order to maintain its presence in states where it once was an indisputed leader.

The rise of the BJP under Narendra Modi since 2014 has been inversely proportional to the fall of the Congress, especially in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal which collectively account for over 40 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats. While the Congress hopes for the best from its policy of less is more, it may have to rethink its approach if the results prove unfavourable come June 4.