Numbers Speak: Can Citizenship Amendment Bill pass the Rajya Sabha test?

The Lok Sabha on Monday passed the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. The bill seeks to provide Indian citizenship to non-Muslim refugees coming from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan after facing religious persecution there. The bill was cleared by the Lower House a little past midnight following a heated debate that lasted over seven hours. While 311 members voted in favour of the bill, 80 voted against it.

The bill will now be tabled in the Rajya Sabha for its nod where the BJP-led NDA lacks majority. However, the government is confident that the bill will sail through the Upper House. The Rajya Sabha has 245 chairs of which five are vacant, reducing the effective strength of the House to 240. The BJP-led NDA will have to garner the support of at least 121 MPs to pass the bill.

The NDA has 106 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which includes 83 from the BJP, six from the Janata Dal (United), three from the SAD, one from RPI and 13 others.

The NDA also enjoys the support of 28 more MPs who are not a part of the ruling coalition. The parties who are expected to back the bill include AIADMK (11), BJD (7), Shiv Sena (3), YSRCP (2), TDP (2) and three others. The six parties have 28 members.

Their support to the ruling NDA would be instrumental in the passage of the bill. With the support of 28 MPs, the NDA has an upper hand in the Rajya Sabha. If the stand of these parties remains unchanged, the could clear the Rajya Sabha hurdle smoothly.

The UPA, on the other hand, comprising the Congress, NCP, RJD DMK and others have 62 members. The other parties who are opposing the bill but they are not a constituent of the UPA include TMC, Samajwadi Party, BSP, TRS, AAP, CPM, PDP, CPI and JD(S). The nine parties have 44 MPs, taking the collective strength of those opposing the bill to 106.

The bill was first cleared by the Lok Sabha in January this year. However, the Modi government didn’t table the bill in the Rajya Sabha, apparently because it was short of a majority. Since the 16th Lok Sabha was dissolved, the bill also lapsed. The Modi government tabled the bill again with a few changes in the Lok Sabha and obtained its nod successfully.