Lok Sabha Election 2024 opinion poll: The Opposition will need a miracle in Maharashtra to win more seats than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance in the two important elections due in the state in the next year or so, estimates put out in opinion poll results suggest.
Two surveys carried out within a month’s span give BJP an upper hand in the Lok Sabha elections and predict a clear win for the NDA in the Assembly elections scheduled after the general elections next year.
The two surveys, conducted by Zee News-MATRIZE for the Assembly polls and Times Now Navbharat for the Lok Sabha elections, were conducted before the recent upheaval in the Opposition following Ajit Pawar’s rebellion in the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party.
As per the findings of the Zee News-MATRIZE survey for the Assembly elections due in the state in mid-2024, the NDA government of BJP and Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is set to return to power in the state next year.
The survey predicts the alliance to get anywhere between 165 and 185 seats while the Maha Vikas Aghadi of the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP and the Congress could end up anywhere between 88 to 118 seats.
There are 288 seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly and the majority mark is 145. In the elections held in 2019, the BJP won 105 of the 164 seats it contested and the Shiv Sena, won 56 of 126 seats where it fielded candidates from. From the Opposition camp, the NCP won 54, the Congress 44, and Others 29.
The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray is predicted to win 2-5 seats while Others could win 12-22 seats, the survey results showed.
The Times Now Navbharat survey conducted for the Lok Sabha elections predicts that 22-28 seats to the BJP, and 18-22 seats to the MVA. Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP won 23 and the Shiv Sena 18. The NCP retained 4 seats while the Congress bagged 1 seat.
Much water has flown under the bridge since the 2019 elections. The Shiv Sena (undivided) walked out of the alliance with the BJP and joined ranks with the Opposition. The developments later led to a split in the Sena with Eknath Shinde leading a rebellion with a majority of the party MPs and MLAs who crossed over to the NDA.
A similar split was engineered in the NCP when Ajit Pawar led a sizable chunk of NCP MPs and MLAs and joined the NDA government, a factor that both these surveys have not taken into account. On July 2, Ajit Pawar took oath as the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra while seven other legislators who rebelled with him were also sworn in as ministers.
The Ajit faction has since staked claim to the NCP name and symbol, claiming the support of 40 MLAs and MPs before the Election Commission of India. The development has considerably changed the political dynamics in the state, tilting the scales heavily in favour of the BJP-led NDA.