As Maharashtra eagerly awaits the results of the 2024 Assembly elections, the battle between the ruling Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is heating up. Both alliances are not only confident of securing a majority in the 288-member Assembly but are also grappling with internal fissures over the all-important question: Who will be the next Chief Minister?
Mahayuti’s CM Puzzle: Shinde, Fadnavis, or Pawar?
The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, remains divided on the leadership issue despite exit polls predicting its return to power. Each major party in the alliance has pitched its own candidate for the Chief Minister’s chair:
Eknath Shinde: The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) firmly believes their leader should continue as Chief Minister, with spokesperson Sanjay Shirsat asserting that voters have endorsed Shinde’s leadership.
Devendra Fadnavis: BJP leader Pravin Darekar argues that if the BJP leads the government, Fadnavis should reclaim the top spot, given his administrative experience and popularity.
Ajit Pawar: NCP’s Amol Mitkari, meanwhile, claims that Ajit Pawar’s leadership has been pivotal in consolidating the alliance’s rural base, suggesting the NCP could emerge as the kingmaker.
Despite these competing ambitions, Fadnavis has maintained that the final decision will be a collective one among the alliance partners.
MVA’s Leadership Tussle: Congress vs. Shiv Sena (UBT)
On the opposition side, the MVA—an alliance of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP)—faces its leadership conundrum. State Congress chief Nana Patole has asserted that if the MVA forms the government, the Chief Minister will be from his party, claiming Congress is likely to win the most seats within the alliance. However, this assertion has not gone down well with Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders:
Sanjay Raut, a key UBT figure, insisted that the Chief Ministerial candidate would be decided collectively, rejecting Congress’ unilateral declarations. He demanded clarity from the Congress high command, including Mallikarjun Kharge and the Gandhi family, on Patole’s claims.
Such rifts within the opposition alliance have prompted BJP leaders to dismiss the MVA’s chances, calling their disagreements a sign of “internal disunity.”
Exit Polls and Voter Sentiment
While most exit polls favour the Mahayuti to retain power, a few have predicted a resurgence of the MVA. Key factors shaping the outcome include:
Increased Voter Turnout: The significant voter turnout reflects heightened public interest, with grassroots campaigns by groups like the RSS playing a crucial role.
Women Voters: Schemes such as the Mahayuti’s “Ladki Bahin Yojana” have resonated strongly with women, potentially tilting the scales in their favour.
Corruption Allegations: MVA leaders, including Congress’s Nana Patole and NCP’s Supriya Sule, have been accused of illegal election funding using bitcoins. While both have denied the charges, BJP leaders believe these allegations could influence voter perceptions.
Key Challenges for Both Alliances
Mahayuti: Despite its confidence, the alliance must navigate internal competition for the Chief Minister’s post. Striking a balance among its three dominant factions will be crucial to ensuring stability in governance.
MVA: Unity remains the opposition bloc’s Achilles’ heel. Past instances, such as Congress leaders supporting candidates against Shiv Sena (UBT) nominees in Solapur, highlight the lack of coherence within the alliance.
Who Will Sit on Maharashtra’s Throne?
The answer lies in the ballots, to be revealed on November 23. However, even as alliances gear up for the final tally, internal discord could play a decisive role in shaping post-election dynamics. The Mahayuti’s strong organization and incumbency advantage might give it the edge, but the MVA’s diverse appeal cannot be underestimated.
(With agency inputs)