A week is a long time in politics, especially when Nitish Kumar is in the thick of it. What publically began with the ouster of Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias ‘Lalan’ as the national president of the Janata Dal (United) in December last year ended with Nitish taking oath as the Chief Minister of Bihar for a record ninth time. On Sunday, Nitish dumped the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) government of the RJD, Congress and Left parties to realign forces with the BJP and formed a new NDA government in the state.
However, Nitish’s volte-face, his fifth in less than 11 years, did not evoke the same element of shock as his previous U-turns. Having mastered the art of staying relevant while changing governments, Nitish’s frequent U-turns have earned him the monicker of ‘Paltu Ram’, a phrase that a miffed RJD breathed back to life on Sunday. Some even equated him to a “chameleon” given his art of “changing colours”.
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Regardless, a thick-skinned Nitish remains unperturbed by the Opposition’s taunts. For, he knows the significance of his latest shift and the impact it will have not just on the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar but the INDIA bloc that he stitched to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the Lok Sabha elections expected to be held in April-May this year.
Setback to INDIA
The year that went by saw Nitish design and implement two major offensives against the Modi government. The first, of course, was the formation of the INDIA bloc which Nitish painstakingly built to counter BJP’s “divisive” politics and as a pragmatic approach to prevent the division of votes among Opposition parties across the country. His second important contribution was the Bihar caste census which prompted the Congress to demand that the exercise be implemented nationally.
The embarrassment that Nitish’s exit causes to the INDIA bloc is manifold. One is that losing its founding member to the BJP just months ahead of polls is an injury that it will find tough to recover from. Second, Nitish switching sides severely restricts the Opposition from deploying the caste card to counter the BJP’s Hindutva push.
Adding insult to injury, the JD(U) squarely blames the Congress for Nitish’s departure, claiming that Rahul Gandhi “insulted” the Bihar CM when he vetoed the proposal to appoint him as the INDIA bloc convener. JD(U) leaders privately confide that they believe Mamata Banerjee’s proposal to appoint Mallikarjun Kharge as the INDIA bloc president was at Lalu Prasad Yadav’s behest and as part of a “conspiracy” by the Congress to “finish regional parties”. That leaves the INDIA bloc with a lot of explanation to do at a time when it is struggling to find its feet.
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Mandal after Kamandal
The inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and PM Modi conducting the Pran Pratishtha rituals is expected to yield rich dividends to the party in the Lok Sabha elections. The mass mobilisation since the temple opening is expected to ensure that the Hindu vote stays firmly behind Modi. The Sangh Parivar aims to facilitate the travel, stay and darshan of as many as 5,000 families from each Lok Sabha constituency during the February-March period. These visits would ensure that the euphoria over the Ram Temple continues well beyond its inauguration.
On the other hand, the caste census was one issue that even Modi found difficult to navigate. However, Nitish’s re-entry into NDA has helped the BJP ace this puzzle too. With the Opposition itself endorsing Nitish’s cate census model as one that should be implemented nationwide, disposing of Nitish’s caste plank is easier said than done. But the perception battle isn’t the only factor where the BJP appears to be winning.
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The caste survey conducted by the Nitish government last year showed Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) as the biggest caste group in the state comprising 36.1 percent of the population. The EBCs are followed by Other Backward Classes (OBCs) — including Yadavs that form RJD’s core vote bank — are at 27.12 percent, the Scheduled Castes, including Dalits, at 19.65 percent, while Muslims form 17.7 per cent of the state’s population. With Nitish out of the equation, the RJD’s primary vote base gets limited to the Mulsim-Yadav combine.
Caste Arithmetic
Nitish, who carved out a separate Mahadalit category in 2009 out of a vote base seen loyal to late LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan, only adds to BJP’s own push to woo non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits in the state. Clearly, caste arithmetic has also been kept in mind in BJP’s choice of deputy chief ministers — Vijay Sinha is a Bhumihar (forward class) while Samrat Choudhary hails from the Koeri community. Nitish, on the other hand, is a Kurmi. Together the Kurmi-Koeri combination is often referred to as the ‘Luv-Kush’ combine which is a significant vote bank that has formed the backbone of JD(U)’s voter base.
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The seeds of this vote base consolidation for the Lok Sabha polls were sown by PM Modi as the government conferred the Bharat Ratna on Karpoori Thakur, a socialist icon and former Chief Minister of Bihar. Introduced in 1978, the ‘Karpoori’ model of reservation envisaged a 26 per cent reservation model which proposed 12 per cent quota for Extremely Backward Classes, 8 per cent for OBCs, 3 per cent for women and 3 per cent for economically backward classes from among the upper castes.
It is this model that is credited with first identifying the EBC vote base, something that Nitish came to represent later. By recognising Karpoori Thakur, Modi appeared to have chipped into Nitish’s vote base. But that was last Tuesday. On Wednesday, Nitish went public with his appreciation for PM Modi and his government. By Sunday, he was back in the CM’s chair with the NDA in power. Is he here for good? Is his re-entry on his terms or that of the BJP?
Only time will tell. For now, Nitish appears to have gauged the undercurrent and made a decision that could cement Modi’s chances of returning the Prime Minister of India for a third consecutive term.