Right after the voting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections ends after the seventh phase on June 1, the exit poll results will be out.
After the conclusion of elections in the world’s largest democracy on June 1, different agencies will start releasing exit poll results for Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections for four states – Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh – giving early indications of potential winners even before the actual results are declared.
The actual counting of votes for the Lok Sabha polls and Assembly elections will take place on June 4 and then the final results will be declared by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
What are exit polls?
An exit poll is a post-election survey and is similar to an opinion poll, which is a pre-election survey. Exit polls are predictions based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the cast their votes. While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment and electoral trends before the actual results are announced. To be clear, exit polls are a rough guide, not a precise predictor and can often miss the mark when it comes to predicting the actual outcome.
The polls are not always 100 per cent accurate.
Several political research agencies and TV news channels are geared up to bring the ‘most accurate’ predictions on vote shares, seats, parties, and candidates.
However, the poll body prohibits releasing exit polls during the voting process, but they are allowed to be published 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.
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This is governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951. “No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard,” reads the Section 126A of the RP Act, 1951.
Some of the most prevalent political research agencies that roll out exit poll results are Axis My India, IPSOS, Chanakya, Polstrat and several others.
When will the exit poll results be out?
As per the rules, in this electoral cycle, the exit poll data cannot be released before 6:30 pm on June 1, the last round of polling. The initial trends are likely to start rolling out by 7 pm.
Polling for 486 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats has already been conducted over six phases. Voters from 57 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across eight states and Union Territories will exercise their franchise in the seventh and final phase of polling on Saturday (June 1), marking the end of about 44-day-long polling exercise, the second longest voting cycle in the history of independent India.
What were the exit poll predictions in 2019?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, most of the exit poll agencies had predicted approximately 285-300 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, the BJP-led alliance secured a landslide victory by winning 353 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone securing 303 seats.
Congress won 52 seats and its alliance – United Progressive Alliance (UPA) – won 91 seats.