Karnataka Elections 2023: Will JD(S) emerge kingmaker again? Opinion polls predict hung House in Karnataka

Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 Opinion poll: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its challenger Congress may both fall short of the majority mark required to form a government in Karnataka, opinion polls conducted days before the state goes to polls show.

Of the six pre-poll surveys conducted by regional news channels, two place Congress ahead while two show BJP in the lead — none predict a clear majority for either side.

The TV9 and C-Voter survey predicts 106-116 seats for the Congress in the 224-member Assembly, 79-89 seats to the BJP and 24-34 for the JD(S). Similarly, the Public TV’s Mood of Karnataka survey also placed Congress ahead in the range of 98-108 seats while predicting 85-95 seats to the BJP and 28-33 seats to the JD(S).

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On the other hand, the Asianet Survarna News Jan Ki Baat survey puts BJP in the lead on 98-109 seats, Congress on 89-97 seats and JD(S) on 25-29 seats. NewsFirst-Matrize survey also put BJP at pole position, predicting 96-106 seats to the saffron party, 84-94 seats to the Congress and 29-34 seats to the JD(S).

Vistara News predicted a fractured mandate with 88-93 seats to the BJP, 84-90 seats to the Congress and 23-26 seats to the JD(S). The South First – People’s Pulse pre-poll survey gave 98 seats to the Congress (range of 95-105 seats), 95 seats to the BJP in the 90-100 seats range and 27 seats to the JD(S) in the 25-30 seats range.

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The verdict points to the possibility of a repeat of the 2018 verdict when no party gained the majority to form a government on its own. Despite emerging as the single-largest party with 104 seats, the Congress (78 seats) and the JD(S) with 37 seats went on to form a coalition and staked claim to form a government.

In terms of vote share, Congress bagged 38 per cent votes, followed by BJP with 36.2 per cent and the JD(S) with 18.3 per cent votes of the electorate.

With no signs yet of a clear mandate, the JD(S) could manage to emerge the kingmaker just like last time. However, there are doubts about whether the HD Devegowda and HD Kumaraswamy-led party can match its performance of last time.

Over the past month, Karnataka has stood witness to intense campaigns by all sides with top leaders of the Congress and BJP making a beeline. Among the top campaigners for the BJP are Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home minister Amit Shah, Defence minister Rajnath Singh, party president JP Nadda and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

The Congress, on the other hand, fielded Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge, besides banking on its local leaders Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar.

While the Congress is hopeful of riding on an anti-incumbency wave to displace BJP from power, the BJP is banking on party patriarch BS Yediyurappa and PM Modi to do their magic in the state.

Karnataka goes to polls on May 10 while the counting of votes will be held on May 13.