India is likely to get a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon (June-Sept) this year in the absence of El Nino conditions, a well known weather scientist said, citing global forecasts. “A blended forecast from UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts suggest average to above-average monsoon rainfall in India,” Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom, told FE.
The country’s official weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release the first prediction for the monsoon season soon.
If the prediction by the foreign agencies hold true, it will be second consecutive year of normal monsoon rains for the country in 2025, after a below-normal precipitation seen in 2023.
During June-September period, the country receives about 70 to 75% of the country’s annual precipitation and a normal monsoon boosts crop prospects as well as water reservoirs levels.
Deoras said as per these models, India could witness an overall normal monsoon season. According to him, the key supporting factor is the absence of any adverse impact from the El Nino Southern Oscillation on monsoon.
While stating that monsoon rainfall would instead be influenced by other sub-seasonal weather factors, he said it would be too early to determine whether the onset of monsoon over Kerala coast and progression will be timely or delayed.
Recently, IMD had stated there are 75% chances of a transition of El Niño-southern oscillation to ‘neutral’ position during April 2025 and is favored to persist through the end of this year, boosting prospects of normal monsoon during June-September period this year.
“El Nino condition is ruled out during monsoon season this year,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD had stated.
The weather office also predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions likely to continue during the upcoming season.
In 2024, the country received 8% more rainfall against the benchmark – long period average or ‘above normal’ range as per the forecast by IMD at the beginning of the season.
The monsoon rains were ‘below normal’ and patchy, although the weather department initially predicted it to be normal in 2023.
Nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on monsoon rains for cultivation of kharif crops – paddy, pulses and oilseeds. In addition, adequate monsoon rains also provide sufficient soil moisture for sowing of the rabi or winter crops — wheat, pulses and oilseeds.
Usually, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by the first week of July. It starts withdrawing from northwest India from the middle of September, withdrawing entirely by October 15.